The Atlantic's Long Silence May Be About to Break — Three Areas to Watch

All eyes are on the northern Atlantic as a new cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms could turn into the next named storm of the tropical weather season. Will this feature wake up the dormant Atlantic?

NHC Monitoring 3 Areas of Potential Tropical Development

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting that a new tropical depression or storm could form over the Atlantic in the near future, breaking the lull that has been the story for much of the season. The latest disturbance is currently churning southwest of the Azores in the northern Atlantic. While this feature could take on formal characteristics by the weekend, it is not expected to deliver any direct impacts to the Azores. The next name up on the predetermined list of designations is Fay.

The latest disturbance in the northern Atlantic is one of three zones that the NHC has been monitoring this week. A non-tropical storm roaming waters just east of Florida is forecast to move to the west and eject out into the Gulf by the end of the week. This is the system that is currently dumping heavy rain over Florida. There is an outside chance that this disorganized storm could develop into a tropical depression or storm over the weekend should all of the factors line up just right.

Lastly, a third area deserving of monitoring is coming together in an area from the Bahamas to the eastern Gulf and the northwestern corner of the Caribbean. A broader area of the southwestern corner of the Atlantic is likely to produce environmental conditions conducive to tropical development into early October. Even in the absence of formal tropical development, this part of the basin will be a hotbed of heavy rain and gusty thunderstorm activity in the coming weeks.

Intensifying El Niño Limiting Tropical Weather in the Atlantic

The influence of El Niño has continued to result in a quiet Atlantic hurricane season. Frequent intrusions of dry and dusty air paired with ample wind shear over the basin's Main Development Region (MDR) have translated to fewer named storms.

AccuWeather forecasters recently lowered their predictions for the rest of the season. The forecasting agency is now predicting just one to three hurricanes by the time that the season officially ends on November 30. There have only been five tropical storms in the Atlantic this year, far below the historical average by this point in the season. Three of these storms, Arthur, Bertha, and Edouard, have delivered direct impacts on the U.S.

What is most notable is that there have been no hurricanes. This is the first time in the satellite era that there have been no hurricanes by this date. Should no hurricanes form by the end of the season, it would mark the first time since 1914 that the basin has not produced any storms of this magnitude.

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