The Atlantic's Quiet Stretch May Be Ending as Two Systems Take Shape

Right on schedule, the tropical weather action is starting to intensify in the Atlantic basin. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring two separate areas of potential development in the Atlantic as the season approaches its climatological peak.

Two Areas of Concern in the Atlantic

The historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is right around the corner, making it no surprise that the tropics are beginning to show signs of life. One area of potential development is located in the central portion of the Atlantic to the southeast of Bermuda. The NHC assigned this zone a medium chance of development.

The current wind patterns are forecast to keep this potential tropical feature well away from the U.S. coastline. However, the system could still generate gale-force winds and dangerous seas for trans-Atlantic shipping routes.

A secondary area of concern is developing off the western coast of Africa. This is the time of the year when tropical waves begin to eject off the African coast and out into the Atlantic with greater frequency. The peak of the hurricane season often sees new waves moving off the coast every two to three days. However, only a few waves pack enough of a punch to go on to develop defined tropical characteristics worthy of a name.

The latest wave to move into the Atlantic is showing more organization than some of its predecessors this year, prompting the NHC to assign a 60% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.

Forecasters are predicting that this feature will come into contact with varying degrees of wind shear and dry air along the way, influencing its chances of further development. For instance, a stubborn zone of moderate to strong wind shear and dry air has been in place across the Caribbean for much of the last few months. This zone could put a lid on further intensification should the wave make it that far.

However, should the wave remain intact as it passes to the northeast of the Leeward Islands later this weekend, it could find the ingredients needed to evolve into a tropical storm or hurricane. While that is still some time out, the latest forecast models show that it could move north of Puerto Rico by next week. This will be something that forecasters keep a close eye on in the days ahead.

What to Expect in the Weeks Ahead

With the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season happening on September 10, this is the time of the summer when the action naturally begins to increase. The Atlantic has yet to produce a hurricane this year. The average date of the first hurricane of the Atlantic season is July 27, putting this year well behind the historical average.

The emergence of a potent El Niño has suppressed tropical weather activity in the Atlantic this year. The opposite situation is unfolding in the Pacific, where El Niño tends to increase tropical weather events.

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