The World Series matchup is set, and it’s not the one anyone would’ve predicted just a few weeks ago. The Brewers and Rays are here after beating some of baseball’s biggest names, and now they’re four wins away from the first championship in either franchise’s history.

Milwaukee got here by winning 103 games, the best record in baseball, then beating the Padres and sweeping the back-to-back defending champion Dodgers. Tampa Bay won 98 games, the most in the American League, swept the Yankees, and came back on Cleveland in the ALCS by winning three straight games to take the pennant.

So this isn’t a matchup between two teams that got hot at the right time and slipped through the playoffs. They’re both really good, and they can turn an ordinary-looking inning into a problem fast. They put the ball in play, and they run well. They just have very different ideas about how to protect a lead.

Milwaukee has a rested bullpen that’s handled nearly half of their postseason innings. Tampa Bay's leaned heavily on their starters, even when those starters have come into games from the bullpen. The biggest question in this series might be knowing when a starter’s night is actually over.

Game 1 is Friday, October 23, in Milwaukee on FOX and FOX One, with Game 2 there Saturday. The series moves to Tropicana Field on Monday. The clubs haven’t announced their opening starters, but the likely matchup is Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski against Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen. If that’s what we get, the first game should give us a good look at how these teams plan to attack each other.

Start With the Starter, Then Watch the Pitch Count

Misiorowski had the kind of regular season that makes you wonder if someone typed the numbers wrong: a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, a 0.80 WHIP, and a .157 opponents’ average. His first pitch of the NLDS came in at 104.8 mph, the fastest postseason pitch of the pitch-tracking era.

So why hasn’t he made it through five innings in either of his October starts?

The Padres and Dodgers didn’t exactly knock him around. But they made him work. San Diego fouled off 30 pitches in the first four innings of their Game 1 matchup with him, and he was done after 88 pitches. Los Angeles pushed him to 94 pitches in 4⅓ innings and were able to score on him. Against the Dodgers, 21 of 42 swings ended in fouls. That’s a pretty effective way to handle a pitcher whose stuff you might not be able to square up.

Misiorowski will have 11 full days between starts by Friday. That should help an arm Pat Murphy acknowledged had already carried a much heavier workload than he's used to. But rest won’t change the math if Tampa Bay can force 20-pitch innings. The Rays struck out less than any team in the majors during the regular season. Their hitters don’t have to turn Misiorowski’s fastball into 420-foot bombs. A foul ball on a tough pitch still costs him one.

That’s Tampa Bay’s Game 1 assignment: make the ace work, get him out of the game early enough to see more than Milwaukee’s first wave of relievers, and try not to give the Brewers a lead in the process. Easier said than done.

Rasmussen is the opposite kind of problem. He doesn’t announce himself at 104.8 mph. He just keeps giving the Rays starts they can win. Since the All-Star break, he’s 11-0 with a 1.73 ERA in 15 starts, and Tampa Bay's won 14 of those games. He carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Yankees in ALDS Game 1.

The Brewers could get caught admiring the difference in velocity here. Rasmussen’s job is to keep them from putting together the long, connected innings they’ve lived on: a walk, a hard single, a runner taking an extra base, then a hit from somewhere near the bottom of the order. Milwaukee drew 668 walks and scored 832 runs during the regular season. They don't need three homers to make a starter miserable.

Rasmussen was also drafted by Milwaukee in 2018 after Tampa Bay had taken him a year earlier and he decided to go back to Oregon State. The Brewers brought him to the majors, then traded him to the Rays in the 2021 Willy Adames deal. But on Friday, that history might be a motivator more than anything.

Freddy Peralta Makes the Rotation Question More Interesting

The other former Brewer on Tampa Bay’s staff took a much different route back to Milwaukee.

Freddy Peralta spent his first eight major-league seasons with the Brewers before they traded him to the Mets in January. New York sent him to Tampa Bay in August after he posted a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts. With the Rays, he finished the regular season with a 3.25 ERA in 10 outings, then won ALCS MVP after allowing one run over 12 innings in three appearances.

That turnaround wasn’t just about changing uniforms. Peralta raised his arm angle after it had dropped in New York — which got some of his extension back — and started throwing his changeup more often. He looks a lot more like the pitcher Milwaukee knew, just with a few new tricks mixed in.

The Rays haven’t announced when he’ll pitch. Game 2 would put him on normal rest after Monday’s ALCS clincher and let Tampa Bay start Rasmussen and Peralta in Milwaukee. Game 3 would give him more time and put him back in the Rays’ home dome, which the club has preferred at times this postseason. Both options are still on the table.

It’d be easy to turn a Peralta start in Milwaukee into a revenge game. He hasn’t talked like someone looking for one. After winning ALCS MVP, he talked about what Milwaukee means to him:

Milwaukee is the team and the city that gave me the opportunity to make my dreams [come true], and also, Milwaukee is going to be always in my heart. But it’s time now to compete. I’m grateful to be here, and excited to go.

Peralta knows the Brewers’ hitters and their ballpark. They know the old fastball, but now they’ll have to deal with his restored release point and a lot more changeups. If he starts Game 2, those adjustments could decide whether Tampa Bay leaves Milwaukee even or in a hole.

Beyond the headliners, Tampa Bay probably has the more flexible starting group. Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax are rested. Ian Seymour can cover innings in relief. Milwaukee has Logan Henderson and Robert Gasser behind Misiorowski, and both have pitched well in October, but no Brewers starter has gone more than five innings this postseason. That isn’t necessarily a problem when the bullpen is this good. Over seven games, though, it gives the relievers a lot of work to handle.

Brandon Woodruff is another big question. He was able to actually pitch to hitters on Tuesday for the first time in nearly four months, throwing 23 pitches, but Milwaukee still hasn’t decided whether he’ll make the World Series roster. It’d be a terrific story if he does. It’d also be a pretty wild bet to make on a pitcher who hasn’t pitched in a game since July 4th.

Milwaukee’s Bullpen Is the Clearest Advantage on the Field

To be honest with you, it doesn't seem like the Brewers’ short starts are bothering them all that much. Their relievers have given up six earned runs in 40⅔ postseason innings. That’s a 1.33 ERA. The bullpen has also picked up seven of Milwaukee’s eight postseason wins.

Aaron Ashby has given them the length that turns a good group of late-inning arms into a real problem. Through the NLCS, he’d thrown 12⅓ scoreless innings, including a three-inning save to finish off the Dodgers. Trevor Megill can close. Abner Uribe brings a nasty sinker and a knack for getting ground balls. JoJo Romero gives Murphy another left-handed option. DL Hall has chipped in with some scoreless work, too.

They’re not interchangeable, and that’s a big deal. Ashby can trot on in the middle of a game and stick around for more than a matchup or two. Uribe can come in with runners on and hunt for a ground ball. Romero can break up a dangerous stretch of hitters. Megill can finish the game.

Tampa Bay has a legitimate bullpen of their own. Bryan Baker has finished each of their seven postseason wins, throwing seven scoreless innings along the way. Cam Booser has become the trusted left-handed setup option, then Kevin Kelly and Tyler Wells give Kevin Cash choices against right-handed hitters. The Rays have also treated their rotation like a group of pitchers who can help out between starts.

Cash knows exactly why he wants to use his staff that way. As he put it:

The best version of our pitching staff is having all five of those guys contribute.

Peralta even came out of the bullpen for two important outs in ALCS Game 4, right between his Game 2 and Game 6 starts.

There is one thing to keep an eye on. Baker pitched in the last three ALCS games, and his fastball dipped below 93 mph in Game 6 after averaging 96.3 during the regular season. He has a few days to recover. Still, if the Rays make it to a one-run ninth inning in Milwaukee, his workload will matter more than his season-long reputation.

The Brewers have the bullpen edge. Tampa Bay’s best way to close that gap is to get length from Rasmussen and Peralta.

The Lineups Are Similar Until You Look at Where the Damage Comes From

Calling this “Milwaukee’s contact against Tampa Bay’s power” would be a little misleading.

The Rays struck out just 1,145 times in the regular season. The Brewers struck out 1,383 times. Tampa Bay hit 169 homers to Milwaukee’s 154. But the Brewers walked a lot more and scored 96 more runs. Both teams stole more than 160 bases. Both are perfectly happy making a defense handle the ball.

Milwaukee’s offense has also looked a lot different in October. After tying for the second-fewest homers in the majors during the regular season, the Brewers hit 10 in eight postseason games through the NLCS. Tampa Bay hit five in nine. Eight games don’t prove a team has found a whole new identity, but the Brewers don’t have to apologize for their lack of long balls every time they step into the box anymore.

William Contreras has three postseason homers. Garrett Mitchell and Jackson Chourio have two each. Jake Bauers hit 26 during the regular season, then drove in six runs against the Dodgers to win NLCS MVP. In Game 3, Bauers fouled off Blake Snell until the 11th pitch of the at-bat, then sent one over the wall. The next night, Milwaukee erased a 4-0 deficit to finish the sweep. Those are two very different kinds of rallies, and the Brewers proved they can do both.

Brice Turang is a big part of this breakout. He pairs excellent defense with a bat that knocked 21 homers and 100 RBIs. Chourio gives Milwaukee power and real speed on the bases. Contreras makes the dangerous part of the order even longer. Even when one of them has a quiet night, the lineup doesn’t just stop. That depth is Milwaukee’s offensive advantage.

Tampa Bay’s lineup is a little more top-heavy. Yandy Díaz gets on base. Jonathan Aranda's got a knack for coming up when they need him most. And Junior Caminero has been the spark plug for them all season long.

Caminero hit 42 homers and drove in 101 runs this year. He was quiet by his standards for most of the ALCS, then hit a two-run shot off Cleveland closer Cade Smith in Game 6. Díaz hit .333 with a 1.061 OPS in that series. He’s the experienced hitter who keeps putting Caminero in meaningful at-bats. Aranda’s patience between them gives pitchers no room to mess up.

Then there’s Chandler Simpson. He hit .306 and stole 46 bases without hitting a home run. From late June through the end of the regular season, he struck out just 18 times in 334 plate appearances. A soft ground ball from him can turn into a hit; a routine single can become an immediate problem on the bases. He gets even more dangerous when the top of the order makes a pitcher work.

The Rays want to get Díaz and Aranda aboard, let Caminero see a pitch he can drive, then keep the inning moving with contact and speed. If Milwaukee keeps the first two off the bases, Tampa Bay has to find production from somewhere in that lower half. Taylor Walls’ glove earns him a spot; his bat doesn’t exactly scare anyone. Cash can mix and match, but he can’t make every part of the order equally dangerous.

The Stellar Defense That'll Define This Series

It’s hard to talk about how both these teams like to put the ball in play and not talk about the people waiting to field them.

Tampa Bay’s outfield took a huge step forward this season. On non-homer fly balls hit at least 220 feet, opponents batted just .256 against the Rays, the lowest mark across more than 300 full team seasons in the Statcast era. Jonny DeLuca, Victor Mesa Jr., and Simpson all made it more likely that a drive into the gap would turn into a long, frustrating out. Simpson went from minus-5 to plus-8 Outs Above Average between 2025 and 2026. DeLuca finished at plus-13.

Milwaukee can cover ground, too, with Chourio, Mitchell, and Sal Frelick, plus Turang in the middle of the infield. But this isn’t about figuring out whose defense can make the flashiest catch. It’s about how these offenses react when the small-ball isn't as effective.

That also puts more weight on baserunning decisions. One runner stealing third so that an ordinary fly ball brings him home, or a clean throw that gets an extra out at second could decide a game with these pitching staffs. The teams stole 162 and 164 bases, respectively, during the regular season.

The Rays have one especially useful answer for Milwaukee’s defense: Simpson can beat the infield without beating the baseball. Milwaukee has an answer for Tampa Bay’s outfield, too: they can draw a walk and avoid the gloves altogether. Those might sound like small advantages. But in a series that could spend a lot of time at 2-1, small is the whole point.

Murphy and Cash Have to Manage the Game They’re In

Pat Murphy and Kevin Cash have both earned trust by finding useful roles for players other teams have overlooked. But they've both got to be willing to adjust to come out on top in this series.

Cash already got one painful reminder of that in the ALCS. Rasmussen had thrown 90 pitches and was still holding a lead after six innings of Game 1. The Rays had relievers warming, but Cash sent him back out. Pitch No. 91 became Patrick Bailey’s game-tying homer, and Cleveland went on to win. One decision didn’t define the series. It did show how thin the line can be between trusting your ace and asking him for one batter too many.

Murphy has his own version of that decision to make. Ashby can cover three innings, just like he did to close out the NLCS, but using him that way takes him off the board for other spots. If Misiorowski is at 90 pitches in the fifth with two runners on, does Murphy ask his ace for one more out? Does he go to Ashby right away? Does he save the left-hander for the heart of Tampa Bay’s order later?

That’s why Games 1 and 2 will be so huge. Milwaukee hosts both and can use their rested bullpen with an off-day waiting. Tampa Bay can leave with a split and take three games back to the Trop. It'll be really telling to see whether Peralta goes in Game 2 or 3. It'll show how Cash weighs the chance to steal a game in Milwaukee against the comfort of starting him at home. A 1-1 split won’t settle a World Series, but it'll completely change which manager gets to call the shots on the next round of pitching decisions.

Milwaukee has the slightly better hand. They have the best starter in Misiorowski, the deeper and fresher bullpen, home-field advantage, and more ways to score throughout the lineup. Tampa Bay can absolutely win this if Rasmussen and Peralta give it length and Díaz and Caminero make those extra chances count. That’s a very believable path for a 98-win team.

My read is Brewers in six. I wouldn’t be shocked if it takes seven. What would surprise me is a total domination by either side.

These teams are too good at turning small openings into runs, and too good at closing those openings before they become anything bigger.

All stats courtesy of MLB.com.