If you’d told Bears fans back in September that this team would be 8–3 heading into the stretch run, sitting alone on top of the NFC North and actually controlling the division race, most people would’ve laughed and pointed you back toward reality. The Bears weren’t supposed to be here yet. Year 2 of Caleb Williams, Year 1 of Ben Johnson, this was supposed to be the year they figured it out, not the year they pushed for home field in January.

Yet here we are. The Bears have ripped off eight wins in their last nine games. They’re 6–1 in one-score games, living on the edge every Sunday and somehow coming out on top more often than not. Caleb already owns five fourth‑quarter comebacks, the most in the league this year and a brand‑new single‑season franchise record. And with one more win, they’ll clinch their first winning season since 2018.

This thing has been unexpected, chaotic, and honestly, a lot of fun. But it also raises the question that every surprise contender eventually has to answer:

Are the 2025 Bears actually built to make a run, or are they just a very entertaining pretender?

A New Identity in Chicago: The Cardiac Bears

For most of the last decade, Bears fans have watched the same movie play out over and over again. It was that familiar mix of a defense doing just enough to win, an offense refusing to hold up its end, and a whole lot of Sunday afternoons ending in that "yep, seen this one before" frustration. You could almost feel the air get sucked out of Soldier Field every time a game got tight late, because everyone already knew what was coming.

This year? Completely different vibe.

The 2025 Bears are still living in close games — they’re just finally winning them.

• 8–3 overall

• 8–1 in their last nine

• 6–1 in one‑score games, including six straight nail‑biters that would’ve buried past Bears teams

• Five fourth‑quarter comebacks from Caleb Williams, which is wild considering how young he still is

Nothing they’re doing is easy. They’re not blowing teams out or cruising past overmatched opponents. They’re dragging games into the deep water and basically saying, “Alright, let’s see who blinks first.” And for the first time in a long time, it’s not Chicago.

Is that a dangerous way to live? Absolutely. You don’t want to build your entire identity around tightrope walking. But it does say something about who they are right now — the culture, the buy‑in, the growth of the quarterback, and a head coach who looks like he actually knows how to push the right buttons.

And the historical context makes it even crazier. The Bears haven’t started this fast since 2018, back when the defense was terrorizing everybody and the offense was at least creative enough to occasionally scare someone. They’ve been chasing that magic ever since, trying to find something that felt like momentum instead of a reboot every two years.

The Ben Johnson Effect: A Real Offense in Chicago

From Hot Candidate to Instant Tone‑Setter

When the Bears hired Ben Johnson back in January, the excitement was real, but so were the questions. Bears fans have seen "hot coordinator becomes head coach" go sideways before, so the big thing everyone wanted to know was simple: Can this guy actually run the whole operation, or is he just another play‑designer who looks good on someone else’s staff? And would he try to force‑feed Chicago the Detroit offense word‑for‑word, or actually build something that fit Caleb Williams and the roster here?

So far, Johnson’s answered pretty much every one of those questions with a steady, confident "yeah, I got it."

He walked into Halas Hall and didn’t spend three months talking about culture — he just set one. Day one, the standard was obvious: work hard, communicate, be accountable, and don’t cheat the details. The motto that’s floating around the building right now is:

“Good, better, best. Never let it rest, till your good gets better and your better gets best.”

Read that on a poster in a high‑school hallway and you roll your eyes. Hear it from a guy who actually lives it? Different story. Players in that locker room talk about Johnson the way pros talk about coaches they trust — not flashy, not rah‑rah, just consistent. Prepared. Detail‑obsessed. Fair. A guy who holds everyone, including himself, to the exact same standard.

And it’s not just in‑house hype, either. J.J. Watt raved about him after getting to talk with him in production meetings this week:

"Ben Johnson is the real deal. Minimizes risk for his players while also taking full advantage of weaknesses in defenses. But not only that, his personality and leadership is phenomenal. He has been spectacular in our meetings so far this year. It’s still early, but going off what we’ve seen so far, Chicago found themselves one hell of a head coach."

That’s not something people say about most first‑year head coaches — definitely not ones in Chicago, where optimism usually gets tossed straight into the wind by Halloween.

Johnson hasn’t even coached a full season yet, and it already feels like the Bears finally found someone who actually knows how to build something instead of patching leaks for a year and starting over. That alone tells you this is different.

Building an Offense That Makes Sense

The numbers back it up, too. Under Johnson, the Bears’ offense has gone from a, frankly, embarrassing offense to something that actually scares defenses — and I don’t mean in the accidental, chaotic way of past years. This is an offense with structure, rhythm, and an actual plan.

• They’re putting up 26.3 points a game, good for eighth-best in the league.

• They're also top-10 in multiple other big‑picture offensive metrics — success rate, yards per game, yards per play, EPA per play — all the nerd‑stuff that normally belongs to teams like the 49ers and Cowboys.

• They’ve climbed all the way to No. 1 in explosive plays, which feels insane if you remember what this offense looked like even 12 months ago.

None of this is smoke and mirrors, either. You can see the bones of a real offense here — something Chicago fans haven’t had in a long time.

• They lean into a physical run game that actually looks built for cold‑weather football instead of just hoping someone breaks a tackle.

• They use play‑action and under‑center looks not as gimmicks, but as core pieces of the offense.

• And they’ve embraced the idea of taking shots — real, intentional, dialed‑up shot plays — to D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and their tight ends.

One of the most encouraging parts? They actually come out of halftime looking better. The Bears go from “solid but inconsistent” in the first half to top‑10 in passing efficiency in the second.

That’s not luck. That’s coaching. That’s a staff adjusting, fixing issues, spotting matchups, and leaning into what’s working instead of stubbornly pretending the game plan is perfect. You don’t see that everywhere — and Chicago definitely hasn’t seen it often.

The Offensive Line Finally Holds Up Its End

Of course, none of this matters if your quarterback is getting buried every other snap. They lived that reality last year. It was downright painful at times. Caleb barely had time to blink before someone was in his lap.

To Ryan Poles’ credit, he didn’t just slap a couple of patches on the offensive line and hope for the best. He basically started over and rebuilt the whole thing from the inside out.

And the difference is obvious. The Bears now lead the NFL in pass block win rate, sitting in that low‑70% range that usually belongs to teams with veteran quarterbacks and top‑five offenses. Caleb has taken the fourth‑fewest sacks in the league through 11 games — which is wild when you remember how long he holds onto the ball looking to push it downfield. Some of that is growth on his end, sure, but most of it is an offensive line doing exactly what it was paid and drafted to do.

Even more impressive? Rookie tackle Ozzy Trapilo got tossed into the fire against the Steelers — with T.J. Watt staring him down, no less — and allowed just one pressure on over 40 dropbacks. Two years ago, that same scenario would've ended in a crime scene.

Caleb Williams, Year 2: Better, Not Perfect

Growth You Can Actually See

If you just box‑score scout Caleb’s first two seasons, you might shrug. The raw stat jump from Year 1 to Year 2 isn’t some dramatic leap into MVP territory. But if you actually watch what he’s doing, you see it: he’s better in the places that matter.

Through 11 games, Williams has piled up:

• 19 total touchdowns to just five turnovers

• A recent stretch during their four‑game winning streak where he posted 932 passing yards, 163 rushing yards, 8 total TDs, and zero picks

Against Pittsburgh, he finished:

• 19 of 35 for 239 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 104.3 passer rating

On paper, that’s a nice, clean line. On film, it was a little messier.

He was off early, missing throws high and wide, and his completion percentage (54.2% in that game, under 60% four weeks in a row) still shows a quarterback who hasn’t fully married his arm talent with consistent ball placement. There are still layups he leaves on the rim.

But this is where Year‑2 Caleb is different: a bad start doesn’t automatically snowball into one of those "welp, guess this one’s cooked" afternoons anymore. He doesn’t let the early misses live rent‑free in his head the way a young quarterback often does.

Instead of pressing, he settled in. He leaned into the stuff that actually works for him — the play‑action, the rhythm throws, the little timing concepts that get him back on schedule. And once he got his feet under him, he started ripping the kind of second‑half throws that make you remember why he was the No. 1 pick in the first place. When the field shrunk in the red zone, he didn’t panic or try to throw a fastball through a closing window. He trusted his guys, gave them chances, and stayed away from the back‑breaking mistakes.

And maybe the most refreshing part: he’s not spiraling when he does something dumb. It’s not that he’s eliminated the occasional "why did you do that?" play — every young quarterback has those. It’s that he’s not letting one bad moment ruin everything that comes after it. That’s real growth, and it shows up way more than the box score ever will.

Owning the Bad, Not Just Riding the Good

The perfect example: that strip‑sack fumble against Pittsburgh.

Backed up near his own goal line, Williams tried to play hero and squeeze something out of nothing. You can get away with that against a sleepy defense in Week 3. You’re not getting away with that against T.J. Watt in a one‑score game on the road. Watt did what he does, got home, knocked the ball loose, and suddenly the Bears were spotting Pittsburgh a defensive touchdown in a game that already felt like it was wobbling.

Last year, that moment would've sent Caleb into full chaos mode — the hero‑ball where every snap turns into a scramble drill and the offense falls apart. This year? Totally different vibe. He came to the sideline, took the coaching, didn’t sulk, didn’t point blame, didn’t pretend it wasn’t his fault. After the game, he flat‑out said he should’ve thrown it away and lived for the next play.

That kind of honesty isn't worth anything on its own… unless it shows up on the field. And over the past month, it really has. You can see a quarterback who understands the flow of a game now — not just the highlights.

• He’s taking fewer sacks that bury the drive.

• He’s protecting the ball late, not trying to be Superman.

• He’s trusting the run game and letting his playmakers finish drives instead of forcing throws into traffic.

It doesn’t mean he’s perfect — the accuracy dips still make you groan sometimes — but there’s a maturity to his game now. He’s learning to win in the NFL’s version of the gray area, where good decisions matter more than big arms.

The Weapons Around Him Are Helping

And look, it definitely helps that Caleb isn’t out there fighting for his life with a bunch of practice‑squad wideouts anymore. This offense finally has real NFL weapons — guys who can bail him out, settle things down, and turn quick-hitters into explosive plays.

D.J. Moore is still the heartbeat of the passing game. Those five catches for 64 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh weren’t just numbers — they were answers. Every time the Steelers pushed, Moore grabbed the wheel and steadied the whole thing. Crossing 8,000 career yards in the process just reminded everyone he’s not a complimentary piece. He’s a legitimate WR1 who plays like it when the moment gets tight.

Rookie running back Kyle Monangai has become the steady dose of toughness this offense needed. His 48 yards on 12 carries don’t jump off the page, but that touchdown and the fact he’s now scored in three straight games — something only Walter Payton managed as a Bears rookie — tells you he’s becoming a real part of this offense.

Then there’s Colston Loveland, who’s quietly becoming Caleb’s "break glass in case of emergency" option. His four catches for 49 yards and a touchdown don’t scream superstar, but watch the timing of them — third downs, stalled drives, red‑zone moments. He’s the guy Caleb trusts to be where he’s supposed to be, which is gold for a young quarterback.

A Defense Held Together With Tape and Turnovers

"Next Man Up" Isn’t Just a Slogan

On the other side of the ball, things are a lot less clean.

The Bears’ defense is held together with tape, adrenaline, and prayers at this point. Just a couple of weeks ago, they were down both starting linebackers (Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards), multiple corners (Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon each hit IR), and key pieces up front like Dayo Odeyingbo. Against Pittsburgh alone, they started the game without five defensive starters — then lost Tyrique Stevenson and rookie linebacker Ruben Hyppolite II before halftime.

This should’ve been the stretch where everything buckled. Instead, backups — guys who were supposed to play 10–15 snaps, not full games — have stepped in and kept the whole thing from collapsing.

• D’Marco Jackson wasn’t just filling in; he took over the green dot and racked up 15 tackles, basically becoming the on‑field traffic cop.

• Amen Ogbongbemiga logged 40 snaps at weakside backer and piled up 14 tackles, flying around like someone who’d been in this defense for years.

These aren’t stars. They’re not even names most fans could pick out of a lineup. But they’re pros, and they’re doing the dirty work — the stuff that keeps you from losing games even when you’re not built to dominate.

And that’s where Dennis Allen comes in. Instead of pretending this is the 2018 Bears defense, he’s coaching the group he actually has. He’s simplified things, leaned into effort and tackling, and centered the entire identity around one thing:

Take. The. Ball. Away.

Living and Dying on Takeaways

If the offense is living on late‑game magic, the defense is living on turnovers. Chicago leads the NFL with 24 takeaways, already matching last year’s total with games still to play. They’re leading in interceptions, tied for third in fumbles, and none of it feels fluky.

This secondary is built to hunt the ball:

• Nahshon Wright has the size and confidence to jump routes. His sky‑high pick against Pittsburgh was the kind of play corners get paid off of.

• Kevin Byard III has been exactly what Chicago hoped for — a veteran who steadies everything on the back end and keeps everyone on the same page.

• Wright, Byard III, and Trumaine Edmunds — just the three of them — have combined for more INTs than any other team in the league.

And then there’s Montez Sweat, who’s finally giving Chicago the star‑edge presence they traded for. Against the Steelers, he logged two sacks, including a strip‑sack he recovered himself. Step back and look at the bigger picture, and he’s got 6.5 sacks in his last six games, which is exactly what you want from your highest‑paid pass rusher.

The blueprint couldn’t be more obvious: When the Bears force multiple turnovers, they win. They’re undefeated in those games.

Turning teams over at a league‑leading rate is incredible — it keeps them in games, hides injuries, and feeds the offense short fields. But counting on it week after week? That’s where you drift from "contender energy" into "this might be a house of cards" territory.

The Reality Check: A Brutal Home Stretch

Where They Stand Right Now

On paper, the Bears are in a great spot.

• 8–3, sitting in the No. 3 seed range in the NFC.

• A narrow but meaningful lead in the NFC North, with the Packers and Lions both chasing.

• Playoff odds floating in that 70% neighborhood, which is wild considering the 0–2 start and how fragile this thing looked back in September.

They’ve done what you have to do early: beat the teams you’re supposed to beat, steal a couple high‑leverage games, and set yourself up so the final month is about positioning, not just survival.

But nobody with a functioning brain is looking at what’s left on the schedule and calling it comfortable.

The Stretch Run From Hell

The Bears’ remaining schedule makes it really hard to be optimistic about them having any momentum going into the postseason:

• A road trip to Philadelphia against an Eagles team that, when they’re right, looks like a top‑two team in the conference.

• Two games against the Packers, one at Lambeau and one at Soldier Field, with the division very likely hanging in the balance.

• A physical home game against the Cleveland Browns, who might not be pretty on offense but can still drag you into the mud defensively.

• A late‑season road trip to face the 49ers, who have been there, done that, and will not be remotely intimidated by an 8–3 Bears team.

• A Week 18 showdown with the Lions, which has a real shot to be a de facto division championship or win‑and‑in game.

There’s no Houston or Carolina to catch your breath against here. Almost every week down the stretch either comes against a proven contender or a division rival that knows you inside and out.

Realistically, here’s the math:

• Get two more wins – probably enough to grab at least a Wild Card spot, depending on tiebreakers.

• Get three more wins – you’re thinking about a division title, especially with the Packers' inconsistencies and Lions' struggles.

The problem – and the thing that keeps this team in the "pretender until proven otherwise" bucket – is how they’re likely to get there.

Contender or Pretender? Sorting the Hype from the Truth

The Contender Argument

1. Ben Johnson built a real grown-up offense.
   Not a gadget offense, not a “hope someone breaks three tackles” offense — a real, structured, modern system built on physical running, meaningful play-action, and explosives that actually feel intentional.

2. Caleb Williams is taking the right steps.
   He’s steadier in the pocket, he’s seeing the field better, and he’s finally figuring out the situational stuff that separates talented quarterbacks from quarterbacks you trust when the season is on the line.

3. This locker room actually believes.
   You don’t go 6–1 in one-score games if you’re flinching the moment things get tight. There’s real confidence here — the kind that comes from guys who expect to close games instead of waiting for something to go wrong.

4. The defense creates pure chaos.
   Leaky? Absolutely. But they force turnovers at a rate that flips games. And in January, two sudden swings can be the difference between “fun story” and “survive-and-advance.”

Put it all together, and you get the kind of Wild Card opponent nobody circles as their preferred draw.

The Pretender Argument

1. They still have a negative point differential.
   That’s a neon sign that says “pump the brakes.” True contenders rarely get out-scored this deep into a season.

2. They feast on losing teams.
   Six of their eight wins came against opponents under .500. When they’ve stepped up in competition, the gap has been obvious — and not in a good way.

3. They’re living dangerously in one-score games.
   A 6–1 record in coin-flip finishes is fun, but it’s also the kind of thing that almost always evens out. You don’t stay perfect in chaos forever.

4. When the turnovers dry up, the defense gets exposed.
   Long drives, chunk plays, wide-open receivers… it’s a different unit entirely when they’re not stealing possessions.

That’s not the resume of a team you confidently send into Detroit, Los Angeles, or Philly expecting back-to-back playoff wins.

Right now, the Bears feel like they’re ahead of schedule, dangerous in the right kind of way, and still one tier below the true NFC heavyweights.

If they wobble to the finish, limp into the playoffs at 10–7 because they handled business against a team like Cleveland and got gifted one by a Brock Purdy meltdown along the way, it’ll be hard to make a serious case that they’re built for a deep run. Fun? Absolutely. Capable of pulling one upset with the right matchup? Sure. But more than that would feel like asking a lot.

On the other hand, if they go out and steal one at Lambeau, hang with (or beat) Philly or Detroit, and show they can win a game where they aren’t the ones getting all the turnover luck? That’s when the conversation shifts. But until then, I'm going to have to see it to believe it. 

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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