The Same Waters That Spawned Bertha Are Being Watched Again

The waters off the coast of the southeastern U.S. will remain a trouble spot for tropical development heading into the beginning of August. Here is a look at where and when the next tropical weather maker may pop up in the weeks ahead.

Could the Next Named Tropical Weather Event Form Near the U.S. Soon?

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continue to watch the ocean waters off the Southeast for signs of tropical weather. The most likely zone of development over the next few weeks is in the waters around Florida, the Carolinas, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Bermuda. Like last week's Tropical Storm Bertha, any tropical feature is expected to come to life near the U.S. coastline rather than in the remote areas of the Atlantic basin.

In the short term, an unsettled weather pattern packing rain and thunderstorm activity will settle over the Gulf Coast and Florida this week.

This part of the basin is forecast to harbor lower atmospheric pressure levels when compared to other areas. Low pressure is a necessary ingredient for the formation of the thunderstorms that can go on to produce tropical weather events.

The long-range forecast models signal that multiple fronts will creep into this region, providing fuel for storms to take root. The exceptionally warm ocean waters this time of the year will pair with what is expected to be low wind shear levels to provide a favorable environment for tropical weather to ignite and intensify.

One possible scenario would be a cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms organizing into a defined area of low pressure that is able to pull away from a frontal boundary. This zone of activity would then have the opportunity to create the spin with a warm core that distinguishes tropical weather systems.

This potential scenario could spell trouble for hurricane-prone areas of the U.S. Because the area of possible development is located so close to the coastline, there may not be much lead time for residents to prepare for landfall. A defined tropical weather system that strengthens quickly will usher in the threat of heavy rain, coastal flooding, high winds, and rough seas.

The expectation of multiple fronts stalling across the Southeast in the coming weeks will also inherently raise the risk of downpours that lead to flash flooding. 

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