The Scary Part of the 2026 Hurricane Season Isn't the Storm Count
On the surface, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season looks like nothing to worry about. The strengthening of El Niño has prompted forecasting agencies to predict a calm season when compared to historical norms. However, some climatologists are warning that the volume of storms does not always tell the whole story about the overall danger. Read on for all that you need to know about what may lie ahead as the season nears its peak.
Gap Between Overall Storm Count and Impacts to Land
Residents of the coastal U.S. breathed a sigh of relief earlier this year when all of the major forecasting agencies predicted that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would produce fewer storms than usual. For instance, the official outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast a total of 8 to 14 named storms, with only 3 to 6 of those going on to become hurricanes. For context, an average season produces 14 named storms with seven of those turning into hurricanes.
It appears as if El Niño is doing its job in keeping a lid on tropical development in this part of the world's oceans. This climate pattern typically turns up the wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, breaking storms apart before they have a chance to organize and intensify. This influence is already being seen, as wind shear levels over the Caribbean Sea are currently the highest ever recorded in the month of July. In addition, the prediction of a Super El Niño coming to fruition is becoming more certain.
Despite this optimism for a calm season, hurricane experts are now adding a caveat to these predictions. This is because storm counts do not always tell the whole story of the risks. History has shown us that Atlantic hurricane counts are generally a weak predictor of loss risk and the volume of landfalls.
For example, while 1992 generated only four hurricanes, one of those was the historic Hurricane Andrew. Compare this to the 2010 season, when there were a whopping 12 hurricanes but no landfalls in the U.S. The delta between the number of hurricanes and the overall damage and death counts is why meteorologists are warning that this is not the time to be complacent.
How Hurricane Melissa Erased the Calm 2025 Hurricane Season
It just takes one catastrophic storm to erase an overall docile season. This reality was demonstrated just last year. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season was considered to be quiet by most measures. Then Category 5 Hurricane Melissa came along at the end of the season, unleashing disastrous impacts in southwestern Jamaica when it roared ashore on October 28.
The record-breaking Melissa ended up being one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall in the Atlantic basin. Meanwhile, the U.S. did not see one single hurricane make landfall throughout the entire season, serving as a stark dichotomy to what happened to Jamaica.
The concern this year lies in where the tropical action has been concentrated. Both of the named storms that have come to life in 2026 have formed close to the U.S. coastline. Unlike storms that originate as tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, the events that grow closer to land do not give much time for residents to prepare for landfall.
In addition, storms that form closer to land also benefit from the presence of exceptionally warm ocean water temperatures. These warm waters serve as fuel for storms to go through the process of rapid intensification. The threat of rapid intensification is why NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory has developed a tool to catch rapid intensification sooner.
Weather changes fast, so help your community stay prepared. Share this story with friends, family, or your group chat, and keep your forecast in the now with Weather Forecast Now.