The Spurs are the better team. I don't think that's a hot take. They've won nine straight, they're second in the league in net rating, and they've got a 22-year-old, 7-foot-4 center who just dropped 40 in 25 minutes on Monday like he was playing rec league.

But the last two times Steph Curry walked into Frost Bank Center with Victor Wembanyama on the floor, Curry walked out with the win. And if Friday's Emirates NBA Cup game — which is at 9:30 p.m. ET on Prime Video — is close with five minutes left, I'm not totally sure the better team is the one I'd trust.

What's Actually on the Line in Group C

This is Cup Night 3, and both teams walk in 1-0 in West Group C. Golden State opened by beating the Lakers 112-95 on Oct. 30, a game they trailed by 23 after the first quarter. That's a sentence that shouldn't exist. San Antonio handled Sacramento 124-109 back on on Nov. 6th.

Win Friday and you're 2-0 with the head-to-head tiebreaker in your pocket. Lose and you're probably sweating point differential the rest of November, which is the next tiebreaker and the reason nobody gets to coast in garbage time in this thing.

The Spurs also have some unfinished business with this tournament. They made the title game last December and had an 11-point lead on the Knicks late in the third quarter. Then they got outscored 43-21 the rest of the way.

Curry Has Owned This Building

Curry's 38. He's averaging 30.6 points, shooting 45.7% from three, and he's missed one free throw all season. One. He's 75-of-76. Last Saturday against Orlando, he scored 12 points in the last 2:21 of regulation and finished with 41 in an overtime win. He passed both LeBron James and Michael Jordan for most 40-point games after turning 35, with 16.

And San Antonio specifically? Last November the Warriors played there twice in three nights. Curry dropped 46 in the first one, going 15-of-16 at the line in a 125-120 win, while Wemby put up a 31-15-10 triple-double and lost. Two nights later, in a Cup game, Curry hit nine threes, scored 49, and won it 109-108 on free throws. Wembanyama had 26 and 12 that night, and he'd blocked Jimmy Butler on the possession before. Didn't matter.

The Spurs won the other two meetings last season, both in San Francisco. But Curry didn't play in either one of those.

Wemby Doesn't Look Young Anymore

Here's the problem with leaning on last year's games: Wembanyama isn't last year's guy. Steve Kerr basically said so himself:

His first couple years, he looked young at times. He doesn't look young anymore.

This season he's at 30.1 points, 11.9 boards, and 4.4 blocks a game on 52.9% shooting, and the Spurs are plus-17.8 a night with him out there. He had 52 and 24 against Dallas last week. Then Monday he tied Sleepy Floyd's 1991 mark with 40 points in 25 minutes against the Suns, blocking nine shots along the way.

Golden State's pretty thin in the exact spot you'd want to be thick against him. Butler's still working back from a torn ACL. Kristaps Porzingis stepped away from basketball to focus on his health. That leaves Charles Bassey, a 40-year-old Al Horford, and Draymond Green to deal with a guy who's 7-foot-4 and shooting threes. San Antonio already outrebounds the Warriors by just about five a game.

The Warriors do have a counterpunch. They've got a rookie in Yaxel Lendeborg who's averaging 21.4 points and hitting 44.3% from deep, and they're the best three-point shooting team in the league during this win streak at 40.3%. Dragging Wemby away from the rim by parking his man in the corner is basically the whole plan. Whether it holds up for 48 minutes is another question.

The Last Five Minutes Live at the Stripe

So where does this thing actually swing? I keep landing on the free-throw line.

San Antonio's issue for a year now has been finishing. In last season's playoffs the Spurs went 3-8 in games within five points in the final five minutes, and 0-5 at home. Wemby and Dylan Harper held up fine in those spots. Everybody else shot 11-for-43. Mitch Johnson put it bluntly after the Finals:

We weren't ready to win an NBA championship.

They haven't played many tight ones this year, which is a nice problem to have. When they have, it's been dicey. In clutch minutes, the Spurs are 1-of-12 from three and 5-for-10 at the line. Wemby's 1-for-5 on clutch free throws, and he went 1-for-4 over the last 2:10 against Dallas while the Mavs almost completely erased a 19-point lead. He's a 77% shooter overall, so yeah, small sample. It's still the one crack in the wall.

Golden State's played four clutch games and won three, hitting 90.9% at the line, with Curry 10-of-11. Four of the wins during this streak came after being down by double digits. These guys are comfortable being down.

If this turns into a blowout, it's because Wemby ate the Warriors' frontline alive, and without Butler or Porzingis that's probably the likelier outcome. But if Golden State hangs around and it's a two-possession game with three minutes left, the Spurs have to decide who's fouling who, because Curry's going to make both.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com.

Want more NBA coverage? Head to Sports Pass for the latest. And for more stories that keep you informed and entertained, YourLifeBuzz has you covered.