The Yankees’ Dream Rotation Is Still Just A Dream
The Yankees got Carlos Rodón back last Tuesday, which should have been good news. Instead, Max Fried went right back on the injured list the same day.
That's pretty much been the Yankees’ season in a nutshell.
They’ve spent months waiting to see Gerrit Cole, Fried, Rodón and Cam Schlittler all in the same rotation. Every time that finally seems possible, another injury or setback gets in the way. As Cody Bellinger put it after Fried’s latest injury:
Every time someone comes off, someone goes on.
But somehow, the Yankees keep finding ways to pitch.
They came into the weekend with baseball’s best team ERA, then watched Schlittler hold Toronto to one run over six innings in Friday’s 3-1 win. The victory was New York’s fifth in a row, moved their record to 73-55, and brought the Yankees within three games of Tampa Bay in the AL East.
Fried's made just 15 starts. Rodón's made 10. Cole didn’t make his season debut until May 22.
Still, New York as a whole has a 3.20 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a .223 opponents’ batting average. For all the attention on who is missing, the Yankees’ battered rotation has been the most reliable part of this entire team.
The Rotation Was Never Just Four Names
The ideal version of this rotation still looks pretty ridiculous.
If everybody's healthy in October, the Yankees could line up Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, and Cam Schlittler. That gives them an American League Cy Young contender, a former Cy Young winner, and two left-handers with four All-Star selections between them. It’s the kind of group that looks great on paper, assuming the Yankees ever get to see them together for more than a few weeks.
They haven’t needed that exact version of the rotation to stay afloat because Schlittler stopped pitching like a young fourth starter a long time ago.
After Friday’s outing, the 25-year-old now has a 2.16 ERA with 193 strikeouts and only 37 walks across 158 innings. He's allowed one or fewer earned runs in a league-leading 19 starts, and his 30.8% strikeout rate is fourth-best in baseball.
At this point, Schlittler has basically become the ace while New York waits for their actual ace to come all the way back after Tommy John surgery. That probably wasn’t the plan when the season started, but it's been one of the biggest reasons the Yankees haven’t fallen apart every time another starter gets hurt.
Then there's Ryan Weathers and Will Warren, the two starters who've really kept this entire staff afloat.
Weathers has thrown 134 innings with a career-best 3.56 ERA and 3.66 FIP. He's been even better lately, allowing three earned runs over his last five starts for a 0.85 ERA. The Yankees gave up four prospects to get him from Miami in January, and that price looks a lot more reasonable now that Weathers has already thrown almost 50 more innings than he had in any previous major league season.
Warren hasn’t been nearly as dominant, but he's taken the ball 24 times and given the Yankees 122 innings. A 4.43 ERA isn’t exactly carrying a rotation, but it’s more than acceptable from a pitcher who entered the season as the fourth starter. If everyone eventually gets healthy, he'll probably be the first one pushed out of the rotation. Until then, the Yankees need him to keep making starts.
Together, Weathers and Warren have covered 256 innings. That’s the part of rotation depth that can get overlooked when everyone starts talking about who would take the ball in a playoff series.
Even the emergency layer has done their job. Elmer Rodríguez made four starts. Luis Gil made four more before his struggles and a shoulder injury sent him back to the minors. Brendan Beck stepped in for a spot start.
None of those three forced their way into the Yankees’ long-term plans, but that wasn’t really the point. The Yankees only had to use them nine times combined. The middle of the rotation gave the team enough stability that the emergency options could be for just that: emergencies.
The Bullpen's Helped Cover The Gaps
New York’s rotation hasn’t survived on its own.
The bullpen's done plenty of the dirty work too. They entered the weekend with a 2.98 ERA over more than 450 innings, which is a big reason the Yankees haven’t completely unraveled every time a starter has gone down or had his pitch count limited.
That matters when Rodón comes back from a seven-week absence and can only throw 66 pitches. It also matters when a starter gets scratched and Aaron Boone suddenly needs nine outs from a reliever who probably thought his night was going to look very different.
Paul Blackburn has quietly given the Yankees 71 innings with a 1.77 ERA. Ryan Yarbrough has done a little bit of everything, from making a spot start to recording a three-inning save. On Thursday, he followed Cole with three hitless innings to help finish off a four-hitter against Baltimore.
Brent Headrick might be the best example of how much the Yankees have asked from this group. He has a 1.52 ERA in 66 appearances, the most in the majors, and has repeatedly handled that awkward stretch between a starter leaving early and the trusted late-inning arms taking over.
The back end has held up, too. David Bednar has converted 30 of 33 save chances with a 2.35 ERA, while Fernando Cruz has struck out 65 batters in 52 1/3 innings.
Rodón’s first start back showed the whole setup in one game. He gave up one run over four innings, then five relievers covered the final five without allowing another. That’s not the way the Yankees would draw up a postseason game, but it’s been the blueprint they’ve used to get through the regular season.
October Changes Things
The concern is that surviving the regular season and being ready for October are two very different things.
The Yankees can get through one five-inning start in August because Blackburn, Yarbrough, and Headrick can clean up the rest. In October, though, every bullpen move matters more. One short start can throw off the plan for the next couple of games.
And there are workload questions all over this staff.
Cole's 35 and in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. Fried's now missed time twice because of the same elbow bone bruise. Rodón's thrown just 50 1/3 major league innings and was pulled from his rehab assignment early because the Yankees suddenly needed him.
Schlittler is already at 158 innings after throwing just 73 in the majors last year. Weathers has blown past his previous career high. Headrick’s league-leading appearances show how important he's been, but it also means the Yankees can’t keep treating him like an unlimited resource.
That kind of depth can get them to October.
But once they get there, the Yankees will need the injury cycle to pause long enough for them to finally use the rotation they’ve been trying to build all season.
All stats courtesy of MLB.com.
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