Tropical Storm Arthur Is Gone — But the Flooding Threat for the Gulf Coast Is Just Getting Started

Tropical Storm Arthur came ashore in Texas on Wednesday, becoming the first named storm of the season for the Atlantic basin. While Arthur devolved into a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the day, it is still packing a good deal of moisture capable of unleashing flash flooding across a large swath of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. Here is the latest on this tropical weather situation in the southern U.S.

Arthur Makes Landfall as Tropical Storm in Texas

After briefly intensifying into a tropical storm, Arthur made landfall on Wednesday afternoon to the northeast of Matagorda Bay. The storm continued to push inland as the day progressed, losing a good deal of wind intensity despite bringing heavy rain to Texas and beyond. The latest forecast models signal that the feature will arrive in the Southeast by Thursday.

Forecasters warn that what is left of Arthur will continue to pummel the South with the threat of torrential rain, flash flooding, and possible tornadic activity through Friday.

The large cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms that had been anchored over northern Mexico and Texas since the start of the week consolidated into Tropical Storm Arthur early Wednesday. The feature was born from the remnants of the former Tropical Storm Cristina, a system that got its start in the Eastern Pacific last week. What was left of Cristina merged with a tropical wave of low pressure coming off the coast of Africa and a stalled frontal boundary to give birth to Arthur.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) first dubbed what would become Arthur with the designation of a Potential Tropical Cyclone on Tuesday morning. The feature hit sustained wind speeds of 45 mph early Wednesday afternoon, giving it the designation of a named tropical storm. The NHC defines a tropical storm as a feature with a defined area of circulation and maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph.

Houston bore the brunt of Arthur's initial impacts. The largest metro area in Texas was under the gun for torrential rain throughout the day Wednesday. A portion of Interstate 10 near Houston was forced to close for a time because of dangerously high water. Communities north of Houston were put under a flash flood warning as the rain fell in sheets.

World Cup spectators had to get out in the elements to reach Houston Stadium on Wednesday for the match between Portugal and Congo DR. Although the match was contested under a covered stadium, travel was significantly disrupted heading into the event.

At least one fatality has been blamed on Arthur. A 15-year-old died on Tuesday evening in Magnolia, Texas, after entering a flooded retention pond. According to the Montgomery County Sheriff’s Office, the teen did not resurface after entering the pond when playing with friends.

Flooding Threats Will Persist for Days as a Result of Arthur

A significant flood risk is in place for the Gulf Coast and into Georgia for the next few days. The tropical rainstorm will amplify the moisture that has already been falling over this corner of the country. The updated forecast is calling for total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches in a zone from South Texas to eastern Alabama. A more concentrated area of 8 to 12 inches is possible over the multi-day weather event.

Several rivers are at risk of experiencing flooding by the time that the rain stops and the water recedes. Rivers in Texas that are in danger of overflowing their banks include the Neches, Guadalupe, Brazos, San Antonio, Trinity, Colorado, and Nueces. Moving to the east, residents of the Gulf Coast and the Southeast will want to be aware of the danger of significant water rises in the Sabine, Calcasieu, Pearl, Tombigbee, and Alabama rivers.

While some of the rivers may take time to experience water rises, the impacts could be more immediate in other areas. Major flooding could be a problem through the early part of next week as water flows into the region's rivers and bayous over time.

The lingering impacts of Arthur will also create rough surf conditions and choppy seas for the northwestern third of the Gulf through the end of the week. Boating interests and swimmers will want to take note of these risks and be extra cautious when spending time in the water.

Lastly, locally severe thunderstorms will amplify the already strong winds circulating within what is left of Arthur. Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts could come out of the strongest storm cells from the upper Texas coast to the east into Florida.

Should Arthur hold it together, there is a small chance that its energy and moisture could reorganize and intensify off the coast of the Carolinas this weekend. This would translate to more rain for the interior Southeast.  Tropical weather experts also note that there is a chance that a non-tropical low-pressure area could form over the Atlantic as a result of the leftover moisture. In short, it could be days before Arthur is completely in the rearview mirror.

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