Tropical Storm Isaias Forms, Could Strike Gulf Coast as a Hurricane

Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the southwestern Gulf early Wednesday and is expected to strengthen quickly into a hurricane by Thursday. Forecasters say it will likely hit the coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle late Friday or early Saturday.

Isaias Expected to Rapidly Strengthen Over the Gulf

Tropical Depression Nine strengthened into Tropical Storm Isaias early Wednesday in the Bay of Campeche. At 5 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It was moving east-northeast at 8 mph, about 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The NHC forecasts rapid strengthening over the next day or two. Isaias is expected to become a hurricane Thursday as it passes north of the Yucatán Peninsula. Water temperatures of 86 to 88 degrees, deep moisture and only light to moderate wind shear favor strengthening.

The official forecast has Isaias peaking near 110 mph, Category 2 strength, over the central Gulf on Friday. It is then expected to turn north toward the coast. The NHC said dangerous wind and storm surge impacts are “increasingly likely” from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

No coastal watches or warnings were in effect as of Wednesday morning, but the NHC said hurricane watches will likely be needed for part of the northern Gulf Coast later Wednesday. FOX Weather reported that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 25 counties.

Isaias is the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season, but it would be the first hurricane. AccuWeather says that would make this the latest first hurricane on record in more than 100 years. The Atlantic has been unusually quiet while El Niño pushes the Pacific into overdrive.

Storm Surge and Flooding Rain Threaten the Central Gulf Coast

Wind and storm surge are the main threats near where Isaias comes ashore. Isolated tornadoes are also possible near the coast as the storm moves inland.

Heavy rain will add to the danger. The NHC expects 3 to 6 inches of rain along the northern Gulf Coast from Friday through the weekend, with up to 10 inches in some spots. Flash flooding, urban flooding and isolated river flooding are possible across the central Gulf Coast and the Southeast.

Some of the region was already facing a significant flood threat before Isaias formed. Dangerous surf and rip currents are also expected along Gulf beaches ahead of the storm.

What’s Next

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Isaias on Wednesday to gather more data on its strength and structure. Tropical storm conditions could reach southeastern Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle as early as Friday.

If you live along the central Gulf Coast, now is the time to review your hurricane plan, restock supplies and check local forecasts from the National Weather Service office in Mobile or your nearest NWS office.

Weather changes fast, so help your community stay prepared. Share this story with friends, family, or your group chat, and keep your forecast in the now with Weather Forecast Now.