Tropical Storm Nolo Threatens Hawaii's Big Island With Historic Rainfall

Hawaii just cannot catch a break. Tropical Storm Nolo is forecast to become a major hurricane as it approaches the Big Island this weekend. Here is the latest on Nolo's forecast track.

Hurricane Watch Issued for Big Island of Hawaii

The already busy tropical weather season in Hawaii is about to become even busier. The latest forecast models from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predict that Nolo will evolve into a major Category 3 storm in the days ahead.

It was just last month that Hurricane Lala swiped the Big Island and left some parts of the region without power for over a week. Just as things are getting back to normal, the island is bracing for yet another tropical weather event.

All of the Big Island is now under a hurricane watch, with models signaling that the center of the storm will churn just to the south of the island. A slight northward shift in the track could take Nolo directly ashore.

Areas that were damaged by Lolo will be particularly vulnerable to Nolo's impacts. Forecasters are warning residents to be prepared for life-threatening rainfall, mudslides, and high winds. The Big Island is bracing for widespread rain totals of two to three feet, with a maximum of 55 inches.

In addition to impacts to the Big Island, the northern fringe of Maui is expecting 8 to 12 inches of rain. The northeastern slopes of the rugged terrain could record 8 to 12 inches.

The immense moisture coming along for the ride with Nolo could deliver the second-wettest hurricane ever recorded in Hawaii. 2018's Hurricane Lane dumped 58 inches of rain, breaking the previous record of 52 inches set by Hurricane Hiki in 1950.

High Winds Will Likely Result in Power Outages

Winds are forecast to gust to speeds of 40 to 60 mph for much of Hawaii and Maui counties. The southern edge of the Big Island and the higher elevations are likely to see winds eclipse this level. Winds of this magnitude are capable of bringing down trees and power lines, especially in areas still recovering from Lala's wrath.

Exacerbating the situation is that the Nolo is moving at a slow speed. The NHC reported that the storm was crawling along at just 3 mph for much of the day Thursday. This speed will amplify the storm surge along the southern- and east-facing beaches. The forecast is calling for storm surge of 1 to 3 feet for the southern flank of the Big Island with a maximum surge of roughly 7 feet.

Nolo is the fourth tropical weather feature to impact Hawaii this season. This is notable, as this part of the Pacific is typically shielded by these types of storms. A strengthening El Niño has fueled the active tropical weather season throughout the central and eastern portions of the Pacific. As El Niño intensifies, the waters of the equatorial Pacific become warmer and support the development of tropical storms and hurricanes.

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