Up to 6 Inches of Rain Will Raise Risk of Flooding in the South This Week
The southern flank of the U.S. is being warned to be on alert for flash flooding issues as a surge of tropical moisture takes aim at a zone from Texas to Georgia. Who is in the path of this potential flooding rainfall, and when will the most potent rain bands arrive? We have everything that you need to know right here.
Repeated Rounds of Tropical Moisture Could Spell Trouble for the Southern U.S.
Forecasters are putting the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast on guard for flooding rainfall in the days ahead. The steady stream of moisture fired up on Sunday and is forecast to persist into the middle of the week. The continual bouts of precipitation flowing up from the Gulf will inevitably raise the risk of flash flooding through Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been monitoring an area of potential tropical development in the Gulf for days. While the zone has been assigned a low chance of formal development in the next seven days by the NHC, it will still carry enough moisture to produce slow-moving downpours to those in its path. The influx of tropical moisture is expected to meet with a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast to enhance these rainfall totals.
The latest forecast models are predicting widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches in a zone from coastal Texas to the east into the southeastern U.S. Locally higher amounts of 4 to 8 inches are on the table for some areas of northeastern Louisiana, South Texas, and south-central Mississippi.
The heavy rain that moved into Texas to end the weekend will inch to the east along the Gulf Coast and the Southeast on Monday and Tuesday. The biggest concern is the possibility of rain that falls at a rate of 2 to 3 inches per hour at times. Rainfall of this magnitude so quickly could trigger rapid rises in water in areas that are prone to flooding.
The heaviest bands of rain are forecast to set up to the east of Texas Hill County. Motorists traveling on portions of interstates 10, 20, 35, 55, 75, and 85 over the next few days will want to be prepared for a slow go during times of heavy rain. In addition to ponding on the roadways, the sheets of rain will also contribute to visibility concerns. Some of the region's secondary roads may also be forced to close for a short period because of high water.
If there is any silver lining in this forecast, it is that some of the South is in dire need of moisture. Any non-flooding rainfall will be welcome in the drought-stricken region.
Window for Tropical Development Closing
A cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms that set up along the western coast of Mexico on Saturday was associated with the remnants of the former Tropical Storm Cristina. This zone of stormy conditions chugged across Mexico on Sunday, putting an end to the tropical characteristics.
However, there is a chance that what is left of this system could drift into the Gulf off the coast of Texas by the beginning of the week. This is the most likely time of formal tropical development as it meets up with the stalled front. Even in the absence of a named tropical storm, the moisture and energy coming along for the ride will be potent enough to present flash flooding concerns for most of the southern U.S.
Looking at a few individual forecasts heading into the new week, Houston is bracing for the worst of the rain to hit on Tuesday. The metro area is expecting at least an inch of rain on this day. While high temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s on Monday and Tuesday in Houston, the high humidity levels will make it feel even steamier.
Jackson, Mississippi, will be at the heart of the heavy rain this week. Storms that erupt on Monday will persist in varying degrees throughout the week as the front stalls out in this region. Residents will need to check the hourly forecast often to time outdoor activities and travel.
Atlanta will be on the northern fringe of the tropical moisture line. The Peach City is forecast to see the greatest chance of rain late Monday and through Tuesday. However, another system will take aim at this part of northern Georgia beginning Thursday, bringing the threat of severe weather. The cloud cover on Tuesday will keep the mercury capped in the mid 70s for a high.
To the northeast, the rain may sneak as far as coastal North Carolina. Places such as Wilmington could see meaningful moisture pick up late Monday. The threat of rain will continue through midday Wednesday in this part of the Southeast. Highs will bounce around in the mid to upper 80s before inching back up over the 90-degree mark on Thursday when the sun comes back out.
This is a fluid forecast that bears watching as the potent weather maker continues to take shape. Stay tuned for all of the latest forecast information as you plan your week.
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