Up to 8 Inches of Rain Could Soak Florida as Flash Flood Threat Grows

A cold front crawling through the state of Florida is going to drop a month's worth of rain in just a few days. Here is the latest on this developing weather maker, including how much rain is expected and who will see the worst of the soggy conditions.

Stationary Cold Front Will Translate to Persistent Rain Across Much of Florida

The same cold front that had dumped several inches of rain across the Southwest and the southern Plains is now tracking into Florida. As a result, the Sunshine State is forecast to see up to 8 inches of rain by the middle of the week. While the moisture will provide relief to the drought-stricken areas across the peninsula, it will also come with its fair share of headaches. According to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than half of Florida is under the designation of a moderate drought or higher.

It has already been a soggy stretch of days for some parts of Florida. The arrival of the next front will amplify this wet pattern. The front is set to tap into the tropical moisture flowing up from Central America. This surge of moisture is forecast to become trapped between the frontal boundary over Florida and a zone of high pressure to the north. This development will keep the rain stuck over Florida and the surrounding areas.

The heavy rainfall will linger through at least Thursday. The latest forecast models suggest that the highest rainfall totals will train over the stationary frontal boundary spread across the panhandle region and to the east into North Florida. Rain totals of 5 to 8 inches are predicted in the zone from Tampa and into Jacksonville.

The hardest-hit areas could hit the monthly precipitation average for October in just one week. For context, Jacksonville averages 4.03 inches of rain in October. This total is likely to be eclipsed in the next few days.

The cloud cover will suppress temperatures a bit across the panhandle. For example, Tallahassee will top out with readings in the mid 70s on Tuesday.

South Florida will escape the worst of the rain and storms. While places such as Miami will still be under the gun for garden-variety rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms, the stream of moisture will not be as intense as it will be in areas to the north. Instead, Miami will see its typical rain pattern with dry conditions to start the day and the chance of thunderstorms igniting with the natural heating in the afternoon. Highs will hover in the mid to upper 80s throughout the week in this part of South Florida.

Level 1 Flash Flood Threat in Effect for Northern Florida

Meteorologists have issued a Level 1 out of 4 flash flood threat for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday throughout the Florida Panhandle and the northern part of the state. In addition, flood watches have been issued in a zone from Mobile, Alabama, through the panhandle, and into Jacksonville. Lastly, winds could hit speeds as high as 35 to 40 mph, adding to the misery.

Although the flood watches and threats are only in place through Tuesday at this point, forecasters are predicting that additional advisories and potential upgrades are likely as the week progresses. Stay tuned as we continue to follow this developing weather threat this week.

Weather changes fast, so help your community stay prepared. Share this story with friends, family, or your group chat, and keep your forecast in the now with Weather Forecast Now.