Which NFL Teams Are Facing the Toughest Weather in 2026
The 2026 NFL schedule dropped in May, and while fans have spent months dissecting strength-of-schedule rankings and prime-time slots, there's another storyline hiding in plain sight: which teams are walking into a weather buzzsaw this season, and which ones get to skip it entirely.
Green Bay's Closing Stretch Is a Frozen Gauntlet
No team's back end of the schedule looks rougher than Green Bay's. The Packers close with five straight outdoor games: Buffalo at home December 13, Miami at home December 20, a Christmas Day trip to Chicago, Houston at home January 4, and a regular-season finale against Detroit the following week.
Lambeau Field's average high in mid-to-late December sits in the mid-20s to low 30s, classic "Frozen Tundra" territory. The Miami date is the one to circle: the Dolphins have reportedly lost 13 straight games when kickoff temperatures dropped below 40 degrees since 2017, and Lambeau in Week 16 is about as far from Miami's comfort zone as it gets.
Buffalo and Denver Set Up a Christmas Day Cold-Weather Showdown
Buffalo isn't getting off easy either. After hosting Kansas City on Thanksgiving night, the Bills travel to Denver for a Christmas Day matchup against the Broncos, then close the year at Miami. Denver's average high on December 25 sits in the low 40s, but wind chill and any snow on the ground at Mile High could make it feel much colder. It's exactly the kind of frigid, nationally televised game the league loves putting on the calendar, and this year it lands on Netflix.
Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Denver's own home schedule (which includes a Black Friday road trip to Pittsburgh and a Christmas Day home date) round out the usual cold-weather fixtures, as they tend to be most years given their late-season outdoor slates.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville Are Sweating It Out Early
On the flip side, Tampa Bay opens its home schedule September 20 against Cleveland, then hosts Minnesota and Green Bay in Weeks 3 and 4, a three-game September homestand in Florida heat. Afternoon highs regularly sit in the mid-to-upper 80s with a strong chance of pop-up thunderstorms, which means any northern team making that trip should expect heat indices well into the 90s and a real shot at a weather delay.
Jacksonville front-loads its home dates early too, hosting Cleveland in Week 1 and New England in Week 3, before heading into its international window in London. Carolina and Miami round out the warm-weather group with their usual late-September and October home slates.
The Saints are a wrinkle: they play under the fixed roof of the Caesars Superdome, so home weather is a non-factor, but they still rack up plenty of warm-weather road mileage, including a Week 13 trip to Green Bay's Week 13 host duties against them on December 6, which will actually be a mild, dry affair compared to what's coming for Green Bay later that month.
Circle These Games for Weather
Buffalo at Denver, Christmas Day: A marquee Netflix broadcast that could double as a legitimate cold-weather spectacle, with average highs around 42°F and any snow making it must-see TV.
Green Bay's cold gauntlet, Dec. 13 to Jan. 10: Four outdoor home dates plus a Christmas Day trip to Chicago, a stretch that could swing from mild to miserable depending on how the polar jet behaves.
Jacksonville and Philadelphia in London, Oct. 11, and Jacksonville/Houston in London, Oct. 18: Fall in London brings a real chance of rain and gusty conditions at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley, a wildcard for teams unaccustomed to the region.
The Bottom Line
These are long-run climate averages, not forecasts, so actual game-day conditions won't be knowable until kickoff week. But history points to Green Bay, Buffalo, and Denver owning the coldest stretches of the season, while Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Miami, and Carolina sweat through September and October. Fans traveling to any of these games should build in a flexible plan and check conditions closely as the date approaches.
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