Why Hurricane Season Might Be the Best Time to Book That Caribbean Trip

Dreaming of a Caribbean escape? While travel to this tropical weather hot spot can be a risky endeavor heading into the peak of the hurricane season, this year could be the exception. Read on for why the weather may lean in your favor this year.

Strong El Niño Makes This a Less Risky Time to Book a Caribbean Trip

Travel bargain hunters have long sought out the Caribbean between the months of September and early November. While this is prime tropical weather season, the threat means that it is also the least expensive time of the year to embark on that island getaway.

According to Yahoo Travel, you could save up to 50% on both flights and resorts if you are willing to stomach the risk of traveling during hurricane season. On the flip side, you might find yourself with an unwanted visitor in the form of a named storm if you take the chance and book those cheap flights.

However, tropical weather experts are predicting that this year might be the one time to pull the trigger on a Caribbean vacation. This is because the forecast of a Super El Niño is likely to suppress tropical weather development in this part of the world in the months ahead.

History has shown us that supercharged El Niño years tend to result in hostile conditions for storms to roam the Caribbean Sea. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), only 13% of all Caribbean hurricanes erupted during El Niño hurricane seasons. In addition, the Super El Niño seasons since 1996 have not produced any hurricanes in this part of the Atlantic. In other words, the statistics are in your favor that this will be a quiet year across the Caribbean.

What to Keep in Mind Before Pulling the Trigger

There are some caveats to these expectations. Forecasters warn that the plan of booking your Caribbean vacation this year is not without risk. For instance, all it takes is one storm to throw a wrench into the best-laid vacation plans. El Niño seasons have produced major storms such as 2004's Hurricane Ivan and 1969's Hurricane Camille.

There is also the chance that this year's El Niño might not come in as strong as expected. A weaker-than-expected El Niño development could take that lid off the Caribbean and encourage more tropical development.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin may not be as quiet. While a stronger El Niño is associated with less activity in the Caribbean, hurricanes are still a frequent threat in other parts of the Atlantic.  

As always, it is important to know your cancellation policies and consider buying travel insurance before leaving for your trip. Once in the Caribbean, be sure to acquaint yourself with the hotel's evacuation procedures and emergency routes. It is also a good idea to go in with the attitude that plans may need to be adjusted should a storm threaten.

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