Every offseason, there’s a quarterback somewhere that fans decide they’re just done with. It happens fast. One bad year, a few ugly losses, a couple head-scratching throws, and suddenly the solution feels simple: move on and start fresh.

That’s where the Miami Dolphins are right now with Tua Tagovailoa.

The season didn’t go the way they expected. The offense never quite found its rhythm. A new coaching staff and front office are in place. And when all of that happens at once, the quarterback becomes the easiest place to point.

But this just isn’t that simple. Not even close.

The Dolphins can talk about competition. They can explore trades. They can signal that everything is on the table. What they can’t do is just flip a switch and move forward. The contract makes sure of that. It’s a roster-building decision that's going to alter the direction of the franchise, one way or another.

And that’s what makes this so fascinating. Miami may genuinely want a reset at quarterback. The problem is, the market and the math are going to decide whether that reset actually happens.

The Dolphins Backed Themselves Into This Corner

On the football side, 2025 just flat-out wasn’t good enough. Miami finished 7-10, and Tagovailoa’s season ended with him on the bench while rookie Quinn Ewers finished the year as the starter.

His final line — 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns, and a career-high 15 interceptions in 14 starts — tells an ugly story on its own. The bigger issue was how volatile things felt. When the timing was right, the offense still looked dangerous. But when it wasn’t, everything slowed down. Tua couldn't get them out of bad situations or make anything happen when the play broke down.

On the organizational side, the Dolphins didn’t just tweak things. They cleaned house. Mike McDaniel was fired in early January. Jeff Hafley was brought in as the new head coach shortly after, and Jon-Eric Sullivan took over as general manager. New staff, new voice, new timeline. And when that kind of change happens, the quarterback becomes less of a foundation and more of a question.

Because here’s the reality: new regimes don’t typically want to build around a quarterback that they didn't choose. Even if that quarterback has had success in the past. The pressure to make your own decision — and tie your own future to it — is real.

Sullivan didn’t dance around that idea. He was honest, and maybe even a little blunt:

“I don’t know what the future holds right now, and I told Tua that... We’re working through some things. What I can tell you is that we’re gonna infuse competition into that room, whether Tua is part of the room, whether he’s not part of the room. We’re gonna infuse competition into that room, like we will do in every other position. Tua knows where we are. We’ve been very honest and upfront, and Tua also knows that he will be the first to know when we make a decision. So if Tua is the first to know, you guys can’t be the first to know, and I know that you respect and appreciate that.”

That’s not the language of a team fully committed to its quarterback. It’s the language of a team keeping every option open.

So yes — the Dolphins are exploring it. The real question is: what does “it” even look like?

The Contract That Locked Them Into This Mess

Tua's 2026 cap hit is about $56.3 million. Cutting him outright before June 1 would trigger roughly $99.2 million in dead money, which would be the largest dead-cap hit in NFL history. Even the post–June 1 route doesn’t magically fix it — it just spreads the pain (about $67.4 million in 2026 and $31.8 million in 2027).

Trading him isn’t a cheat code, either. If Miami trades him before June 1, it’s still a $45.2 million dead-cap hit on their end. The acquiring team would be taking on major cash (a fully guaranteed 2026 salary), and that’s where it gets tricky. Miami would likely have to eat a large chunk of that salary to make a deal possible.

Adam Schefter’s already reported that the Dolphins are going to do that, but just how much are they willing to cover?

"The Dolphins would like to explore trading Tua Tagovailoa... But it remains unclear whether a deal [would be] feasible given the financial hurdles for an acquiring team... Miami is expected to be willing to pay down a portion of Tagovailoa's contract to help facilitate a trade."

And that’s the core tension of this whole saga. Fans want an answer. The Dolphins want flexibility. The contract doesn't make either very easy.

The Falcons Theory: The One Place He (Kind Of) Fits

If you’re looking for a real “football fit” for a one-year Tua swing, Atlanta is the first — and maybe only — team that makes sense.

The Falcons have real weapons on that side of the ball. They’re built to let a quarterback play point guard. And if you buy the idea that Tua can still be a very good quarterback in a timing-based offense with playmakers who separate, Atlanta checks those boxes.

The other reason Atlanta keeps coming up is the quarterback domino effect. Kirk Cousins is widely expected to be released, and when that happens, it opens up meaningful cap space. Meanwhile, Michael Penix Jr. tore his ACL in November and reportedly may not be ready until the middle of the 2026 season. That’s not “panic,” but it is pressure.

It also gets a lot easier to move on from Tua after the 2026 season. Cutting him outright in the 2027 offseason would be leave the Falcons with less than a third of the $99-million dead-cap that he has tied to him this year. If you’re trying to stay competitive in a division you can win, the idea of a bridge quarterback becomes more than a thought experiment.

But even that comes with strings.

First, Atlanta would still be paying real money for a quarterback with major question marks — unless Miami eats a huge amount. Second, Miami’s own deadline matters here: there are option/bonus timing issues early in the league year that impact how the money is structured, and it’s another reason a “simple trade” isn’t simple at all.

Why Other QB-Needy Teams Will Probably Pass

Here’s the part that gets missed: most quarterback-needy teams are needy because they aren’t very good. And when you aren’t very good, you don’t want to allocate huge resources to a quarterback with a history of injury who also happens to be coming off the worst year of his career.

That’s why you’re more likely to see teams like the Jets chase cheaper, sturdier options than go all-in on an expensive question mark. We’re talking the Malik Willis / Mac Jones / Jacoby Brissett type of idea: a higher floor and much lower price tag.

Even better teams with quarterback uncertainty have a similar logic. Minnesota, for example, is potentially in the market for a quarterback to step in. But they'd much rather stick with J.J. McCarthy on a rookie contract than take a chance on Tua at nearly $60 million. If you’re deciding between “cheap unknown” and “expensive unknown,” you generally pick cheap.

Which Brings Us Back To The Most Likely Outcome

Unfortunately for most Dolphins fans, the most likely outcome is that Tua is back in the building in 2026. Maybe as the starter, maybe not, but Miami finding an exit that doesn’t involve setting their cap sheet on fire seems highly unlikely. That’s not exaggeration. That’s just the reality of how this contract is built.

And if you listen closely, the Dolphins have already started laying the groundwork for that reality. Sullivan’s “competition” line mattered. It wasn’t a throwaway comment to buy time. It was a signal that, no matter what happens, this quarterback room is going to look different.

That could mean:

• Drafting a quarterback early and letting the rookie compete right away instead of slow-playing the future. (Although with this being considered a pretty weak draft class, I'm not sure they're in a position to take a swing like that. Take a sure thing at another spot and figure out the quarterback when your team is ready for one.)

• Bringing in a veteran bridge who can push Tua, stabilize the room, and give the staff a real alternative if they decide he’s not their guy.

• Keeping Ewers as a cheap developmental option while adding a legitimate veteran as QB2 instead of hoping the depth chart figures itself out.

Urgency and smart roster building don’t always go together. Right now, Miami has to explore trading him. That’s just due diligence. But everyone in the league knows the Dolphins don’t have many options, and that drains their leverage.

In this league, when you lose leverage, you either rush into a bad deal just to be done with it… or you slow down, change the timeline, and make the decision when it actually benefits you. That’s the difference between the franchises that stay competitive year after year and the ones that find themselves hitting the reset button every few seasons. 

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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