Winter 2026 Forecast: How a Record El Niño Could Reshape Snow and Cold
El Niño is firmly in control of the weather these days, with the trend expected to continue right through the winter. Here is an early look at what you should expect this winter across the U.S.
Where to Expect the Most Snow This Winter
Forecasters have been predicting for months that a strengthening El Niño will drive the winter weather in the months ahead. This climate phase is setting up to be a record-breaker as defined by several metrics, potentially coming in as the strongest El Niño on record.
El Niño typically results in a more potent storm track across the southern U.S., raising the risk of snow in areas that do not typically see it. This shift in the storm track will also result in greater chances of snow in the Plains states in January and February when compared to the start of the winter, including the Southeast and the southern Appalachians.
Conversely, the snow is forecast to get off to an early start in the Sierra Nevada and to the east through the Great Basin and the central and southern Rockies. This early-season boost will be welcome in the ski resorts that experienced a dismal season last year.
Areas that should not count on a snowy winter include the Northeast, the Midwest, and the Pacific Northwest. This long-range forecast does mean that there will not be any major snowstorms. It simply means that the regions are expected to see less snow than normal. Keep in mind that it just takes one blockbuster storm to boost the overall totals. Chances of snow for the northern tier of the nation will increase during the back half of the winter if El Niño starts to lose its grip.
The western U.S. is likely to see an onslaught of atmospheric rivers in the months ahead, translating to flooding rainfall across the lower elevations. California will be the primary target of this parade of storms, with the activity progressing from north to south as the winter continues. In addition to the impacts of the moisture, the amplified storm track will also raise the threat of high winds, landslides, coastal flooding, and beach erosion.
The forecast of elevated moisture levels for the western U.S. is good news for the drought-stricken parts of this region. Record-low snowpack last winter across the Colorado River Basin has sent water levels plummeting in Lake Power and Lake Mead. However, even a soggy and snowy winter will not replenish these major reservoirs.
Where to Expect the Coldest Temperatures
While people are most interested in how El Niño will influence this year's snow patterns, the temperature predictions also deserve some attention. December is forecast to kick off on a warm note for much of the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This will limit the typical lake-effect snow that fires up this time of year. The northern U.S. will be under the threat of more frequent cold air intrusions as the winter progresses; however, the overall temperature trends will remain on the warmer side.
It will be the opposite situation in the Four Corners region, the south-central Plains, and the Gulf Coast. These parts of the country should prepare for temperatures that run cooler than normal throughout the winter thanks to a more active storm track and the associated cloud cover.
The chance of severe thunderstorms will also be a regular occurrence across the Southeast and the mid-Atlantic. The forecast of repeated rain showers across the southern third of the country will result in a higher threat of river flooding in the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valleys by the end of the season and into spring.
The colder temperatures will inevitably translate to higher heating bills across the central Rockies, the Southwest, and the Gulf Coast. Metro areas such as Houston, Dallas, Las Vegas, New Orleans, and Phoenix will want to plan for higher costs. Conversely, heating demand is likely to be lower when compared to last year for most of the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Northeast.
The meteorological winter officially begins on December 1.
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