Dallas Mavericks may have turned 1.8 percent odds into billion-dollar swing with looming Cooper Flagg No. 1 pick
The Dallas Mavericks have achieved an unexpected triumph by winning the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery, despite having only a 1.8% chance, allowing them to draft the highly-touted Duke prospect Cooper Flagg. This comes after their controversial trade of Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers, a move initially met with outrage from fans. The acquisition of Flagg is seen as potentially transformative for the franchise, both on the court and financially, with estimates valuing the draft win as potentially worth up to $1 billion. The transaction has spurred conspiracy theories due to the improbability of their lottery win following the Dončić trade. Nonetheless, Mavericks CEO Rick Welts acknowledges the surreal nature of these events, viewing them as a significant reversal of fortune for the team.
Context:
The Dallas Mavericks have achieved an unexpected triumph by winning the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery, despite having only a 1.8% chance, allowing them to draft the highly-touted Duke prospect Cooper Flagg. This comes after their controversial trade of Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers, a move initially met with outrage from fans. The acquisition of Flagg is seen as potentially transformative for the franchise, both on the court and financially, with estimates valuing the draft win as potentially worth up to $1 billion. The transaction has spurred conspiracy theories due to the improbability of their lottery win following the Dončić trade. Nonetheless, Mavericks CEO Rick Welts acknowledges the surreal nature of these events, viewing them as a significant reversal of fortune for the team.
Dive Deeper:
The Dallas Mavericks, with only a 1.8% chance, have remarkably won the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery, securing the rights to draft Cooper Flagg, a promising 17-year-old prospect from Duke University.
This victory comes in the wake of a major trade where the Mavericks sent their star player, Luka Dončić, to the Los Angeles Lakers, a move that initially disappointed and angered their fan base.
Cooper Flagg is considered the most exciting American basketball prospect since Zion Williamson, with his marketability and skill set expected to have a significant impact on the Mavericks' success and value.
The draft win is seen as financially monumental, with estimates suggesting it could be worth between $500 million to $1 billion for the Mavericks, revitalizing their future prospects.
There is speculation and conspiracy theories surrounding the fortuitous nature of the Mavericks' draft win, given the timing and circumstances following the trade of Dončić.
Mavericks CEO Rick Welts, who has previous experience with the NBA draft lottery, expressed his amazement at the outcome, likening it to past conspiracy theory stories he has encountered.
The strategic gamble by the Mavericks to trade a top player and subsequently secure a potential new franchise cornerstone in Flagg could prove to be one of the most lucrative decisions in NBA history.
The Dallas Mavericks might have just flipped their greatest gamble into a generational win.
Months after dealing Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers — a trade that sent shockwaves through the NBA and left Dallas fans furious — the Mavericks defied the odds Monday night by winning the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery. Their chances? Just 1.8%. Their reward? The right to draft Duke superstar Cooper Flagg, a 17-year-old phenom already being discussed as a franchise savior.
For a team desperate to recover from trading one of the league’s top three players to its most popular franchise, the timing couldn’t have been more dramatic — or more convenient.
Even before the lottery results were revealed, ESPN’s Adam Schefter shared that one NBA executive had estimated the value of winning the No. 1 pick this year could be “a minimum of $500 million and maybe up to $1 billion” for the franchise lucky enough to land it.
The Mavericks just cashed in.
Flagg is widely viewed as the most hyped American prospect since Zion Williamson. His marketability, combined with his unique two-way skill set and projected stardom, has NBA owners and executives salivating over what he could mean both on the court and financially.
There’s no ignoring the raised eyebrows, either. After Dallas dealt Dončić to the Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a 2029 first-round pick, their playoff hopes quickly vanished — landing them in the lottery. Then, despite having the 10th-best odds, they leapfrogged nine teams to land the top pick.
“I’m not a big conspiracy theorist,” Joe Pompliano wrote, “but it seems awfully convenient that the Mavericks traded Luka to the NBA’s biggest market and then got Cooper Flagg in return months later.”
Even Mavericks CEO Rick Welts couldn’t help but reflect on the surreal nature of the moment. “I was in charge of the NBA draft lottery 40 years ago when Patrick Ewing won,” Welts told Ben Golliver of The Washington Post. “I've been doing conspiracy theory stories ever since. This is very surreal, personally."
Regardless of what anyone believes, the facts remain: Dallas bet big by trading Luka Dončić. And now, with Cooper Flagg looming as the next face of the franchise — and potentially the league — the Mavericks may have just turned one of the riskiest moves in NBA history into a billion-dollar blessing.