Ashton Jeanty’s rookie season is one of those cases where you can tell almost any story you want — and still be technically right.

On paper, it starts with a big swing. The Raiders used the sixth overall pick on a running back, handed him 266 carries, and got 975 rushing yards in return. From that angle, it’s easy to say the production didn’t match the investment. Las Vegas also finished last in the NFL in rushing for the second straight year. If the goal was to change the identity of the offense, the results didn’t show it.

That version of the story is true. But so is another one.

Jeanty led all rookies in rushing yards and total scrimmage yards, scored 10 touchdowns, and set a Raiders rookie record with 1,321 yards from scrimmage. He topped his class in yards after contact, broken tackles, and runs of 10-plus yards, all while running behind an offensive line that let defenders in the backfield like it was their job. In a lot of ways, he was asked to create something out of very little — and usually did.

The real issue is what happens when either side gets treated as the full picture. Jeanty wasn’t a bust, but his season wasn’t just the inevitable outcome of a bad situation either. There were real growing pains. His vision and timing between the tackles weren’t always sharp, and there were moments where he tried to bounce runs outside instead of taking the easier yards inside — only to find NFL speed is different from what he saw at Boise State.

At the same time, there were plenty of carries where there simply wasn’t much he could do.

The numbers reflect that tension. Jeanty averaged just 1.6 yards before contact, meaning most of his work started immediately after the snap. A striking 57 percent of his rushing yards came after contact, and he was tackled for a loss on nearly 17 percent of his carries. His 32 percent rushing success rate says less about his ability in isolation and more about how often the Raiders’ offense put him in bad spots.

Las Vegas Asked Jeanty To Create Everything

Running backs just don’t go sixth overall anymore unless they’re doing more than taking what the line gives them. Jeanty went that high because Boise State could hand him the ball into a mess, watch the hole vanish instantly, and still expect him to salvage it. In his final college season he ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns, finishing just 27 yards short of Barry Sanders’ FBS record. Even crazier, 1,970 of those yards came after contact, and he forced 164 missed tackles.

And yeah, that wasn’t a fluke. You could see it on tape. Jeanty would press a crease, get a defender to commit, then slip away without losing his balance. He’d absorb arm tackles, bounce off clean hits, and somehow stay upright when the play should’ve been dead. His low center of gravity made life miserable for defenders: hesitate, and he’s gone; attack too high, and you’re getting run through.

That skill showed up right away in the NFL. The issue was how often the Raiders needed it just to get back to the line of scrimmage.

Pro Football Reference credited Jeanty with 419 yards before contact and 556 after it. The Raiders charted him with 24 broken tackles, third-most in the league. Jeanty was spending way too much of his rookie year creating the run after the play had already gone sideways.

You saw it from Week 1. His first NFL carry went for nine yards behind lead blockers off right guard. The next 18 carries? 29 yards total. New England adjusted fast and packed the box. He finished his debut with 38 rushing yards… and 44 of them were credited after contact. That’s the kind of stat that makes you do a double take.

Two weeks later, Washington was doing the same thing. They met him at or behind the line on 11 of his 17 carries. And it wasn’t one busted assignment or a single defender blowing things up — it was the whole structure of the defense.

A Constant Rotation Up Front

Las Vegas never really had a steady answer up front. Left tackle Kolton Miller went down with a high ankle sprain in Week 4 and never came back, missing the last 13 games. Jackson Powers-Johnson missed nine, Jordan Meredith missed four, and the whole thing turned into a weekly shuffle. The Raiders ended up using six different offensive line combinations, starting 11 different linemen, and constantly moving guys between center and guard while a rookie back was trying to figure out how fast NFL fronts can change after the snap.

Vision isn’t just about spotting a hole. It’s about knowing how a play is supposed to unfold, trusting where the movement is going, and committing before anything actually opens up. That’s already a tough ask for a rookie coming out of Boise State. It gets a whole lot harder when the line in front of you looks different every couple of weeks and the same play never quite looks the same twice.

The numbers at the end of it all were just as rough as the tape. The Raiders ran for 1,317 yards total, only 77.5 per game, dead last in the league. Their 3.6 yards per carry was actually worse than Jeanty’s own average. They only scored five rushing touchdowns all year, and Jeanty had all five of them. The offense finished 32nd in points. Geno Smith threw 17 picks. It felt like everything that could go wrong for them, did.

Jeanty also had four games with 10 carries or less. The Raiders were last in time of possession for long stretches, and then the offense changed hands after 11 games when Chip Kelly was fired.

Even the “stacked box” narrative needs a little context. Jeanty saw an average of 7.23 defenders in the box, per SumerSports. That’s basically in line with Jahmyr Gibbs and D’Andre Swift, and actually lower than what guys like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Kenneth Walker III dealt with. So yes, defenses respected him — but he wasn’t living in constant nine-man boxes all season.

The real issue showed up after the snap.

The Traits Didn't Go Anywhere

The easiest way to defend Jeanty’s season is to point at the offensive line. And yeah, that’s fair. But the better argument is what he did in the moments when the line actually gave him something to work with.

His contact balance was still ridiculous. If he got to a defensive back with any kind of momentum, he wasn’t going down quietly — he was dropping a shoulder and making it hurt. If the hit came a little off-center, he’d just roll through it and keep churning. His feet almost never died on first contact, which is how a lot of his “nothing plays” turned into three or four yards anyway.

Those aren’t the flashy highlights you post in July. But over a full season like this, they’re the difference between 975 yards and a year that looks way worse on paper.

And the open-field stuff was still there too. Jeanty can drop his weight, cut, and get back to full speed without all that extra buildup. The windows closed faster in the NFL, sure, but his best tools still showed up against real defenders. He finished with 24 runs of 10+ yards, which led all rookies — even though the Raiders only had five runs of 20+ yards as a team all year.

Week 4 against Chicago was the closest thing to the what most people expected to see from him. With Powers-Johnson back and the Raiders finally using more under-center looks (69 percent of their runs), everything just lined up better. The timing, the angles, the run fits — it all clicked. Las Vegas averaged 8.1 yards per carry from under center, and Jeanty went for 21 carries, 138 yards, and a touchdown.

That 64-yard run was the one everyone had in their head on draft night. He hit the second level without having to survive a fistfight in the backfield first, and once he was there, it was over. Burst, balance, finish — everything showed up at once. He also added two receiving touchdowns that day, finishing with 155 total yards and three scores.

And then… it didn’t really go anywhere from there. Miller got hurt in that game, the line shuffled again, and Jeanty didn’t even crack four yards per carry in another game for over two months. From Week 6 to Week 15, there were games where he had 21 yards, 7 yards, 31, 30, 35. At one point, he had more yards after contact than total rushing yards in three of four games. That’s not normal “rookie growing pains.”

Then Week 16 against Houston happened.

And that was probably his most complete game of the year. The Texans came in with one of the better defenses in football, and Jeanty still went 24 carries for 128 yards, 106 of them after contact, and forced 14 missed tackles. The 51-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter was the full picture: he stayed patient, let everything compress, forced the defense to overcommit, then bounced it outside and punished them for losing leverage.

What stood out there was the patience. Earlier in the year, he’d sometimes bail the second things got muddy inside. This time, he let it breathe. He trusted the blocking, held the defense just long enough, and only bounced when it was actuallythere. That’s the kind of small shift that usually shows up late for rookies — and it did here.

Houston also reminded everyone why his receiving ability isn’t just a “nice extra.” He beat a linebacker on a stop-and-go for a 60-yard touchdown, tracking it downfield like a real receiver, not just a checkdown option. A week later, he laid out for a wheel route against the Giants. Those aren’t gadget plays — that’s real route work.

He finished with 55 catches, 346 yards, and five touchdowns. Pro Football Reference had him at 452 yards after the catch and -106 before it, which isn't that far off from his runs. Screens, swings, quick outs — he handled all of it, but the late-season routes hinted at a bigger role waiting to happen.

And it’s not like this is new for him. He had 573 receiving yards at Boise State in 2023, most among FBS running backs. He played slot in high school. He’s even said before the draft that receiving is one of the most underrated parts of his game. The Raiders just didn’t really tap into all of it yet.

The pass protection, though — that’s where things were more up and down. He wasn’t afraid of contact, and he did step in when he had to, but the recognition wasn’t always there. Early in the year, his pass-pro grades were near the bottom of the position group, and he gave up a sack against the Chargers. On play-action, he also didn’t always sell the run hard enough to hold linebackers.

Those are rookie issues, but they matter. A real three-down back has to do more than just run and catch — he has to keep the quarterback upright and make the offense look believable.

Because if defenses can read the play off his first step, they’re already ahead before he even touches the ball.

Jeanty Still Left Yards On The Field

The offensive line explains a lot. It doesn’t explain everything.

There were runs where Jeanty made life harder on himself. The most common issue was him trying to bounce it outside before the defense had really committed. At Boise State, that kind of burst could turn a broken look into a highlight. In the NFL, though, there’s usually an edge defender or a scraping linebacker waiting with just enough speed to turn it into a sideline chase he can’t win.

Some of those bounces make sense. When you’re getting hit in the backfield over and over, it’s hard to trust the next crease is actually going to be there. You start trying to solve the play early because waiting has usually meant someone's already in your lap.

But understanding it doesn’t make it the right answer.

Jeanty’s best NFL runs were the simple ones. Stay tight to the blocking a beat longer, press the first lane, let defenders tip their hand, then cut decisively. That’s where he looked like a real problem. The issues came when patience turned into hesitation, or when the first flash of color made him assume the play had to go outside.

There were also missed cutbacks. On a few zone runs, the defense flowed one direction and a clean crease opened back inside. Instead of planting and taking it, Jeanty kept stretching the run or tried to loop all the way around the tackle. Nothing flashy was waiting there, but those were the kind of four- and five-yard gains an offense absolutely has to take.

And that’s the standard he’s being held to. The Raiders didn’t take him sixth overall because he’d look good only when everything was perfectly blocked. They drafted him because he could create when things weren’t. He still showed that part. The consistency on the first decision just wasn’t there yet.

PFF graded him at 73.1 as a runner, 33rd out of 55 qualified backs. That’s not a label, but it does line up with what the tape shows — starter-level traits, real balance, real three-down ability, but not the week-to-week dominance you’d expect from a top-tier back.

The line played a role in all of it. So did Jeanty, especially when he passed up the easy, boring gain while hunting for something bigger.

That’s probably the most important takeaway from his rookie year. The talent is real. Nothing about it feels fake. The next step is how he uses it between the tackles — seeing it a half-second sooner, committing a half-step quicker, and taking what’s there.

If he does that, the explosive plays won’t go away. They’ll actually get more dangerous, because defenses won’t be able to count on him trying to create one every time.

Year Two Should Give Us A Real Answer

The Raiders have already come out and said last year just wasn’t good enough around him. So they went to work. Pete Carroll is out, Klint Kubiak is in, and they brought in veteran offensive line coach Rick Dennison. They also made a big swing in free agency, locking up three-time Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum on a record deal. The hope is simple: fix the foundation.

There are other pieces coming back into the mix too. Kolton Miller is healthy again, Jackson Powers-Johnson is coming back, and Spencer Burford gives them another experienced option inside. They even added fullback Connor Heyward, which might not sound flashy, but it matters in Kubiak’s system — he’s the kind of movable piece who can help set the edge in the run game and open things up in play action.

And that’s really the bigger shift here. It’s not just new names — it’s a new identity. Kubiak’s Seattle offense last year ripped off 16 runs of 20+ yards. The Raiders had five. That gap tells you everything.

His system is built to tie the run game to play action and force defenders to hesitate.

On paper, that should fit Jeanty. He’s always been comfortable in zone schemes, and before the draft he even said inside zone is the system he’d pick if he had to live in one. If Miller is right and Linderbaum stabilizes the middle, the front side should finally feel more predictable.

But let’s be real — none of this is a magic fix. The line still has to stay healthy, the guard spots need to sort themselves out, and Jeanty still has things to clean up in his own game. Better blocking helps, but it doesn’t make decisions for you.

That’s why year two is the real test. If the Raiders give him a cleaner picture and he’s still bouncing good runs into trouble, missing cutbacks, or struggling in protection, then that’s on him.

But if the timing clicks and those flashes in space start showing up every week, then last year’s 3.7 yards per carry starts to look a lot less like a red flag — and more like what happens when you drop a rookie into a broken situation.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.