The MLB All-Star Game Has A Numbers Problem

Hunter Tierney
By Hunter Tierney
July 8, 2026
The MLB All-Star Game Has A Numbers Problem

The All-Star rosters drop every year and we all pretend we’re surprised when it turns into a mess. made it. It’s all about who didn’t.

You scroll the list, see a name missing, and immediately go, “Wait… how is that guy not in?” Then you check another position and realize there are three more guys you could say the same thing about. Meanwhile, someone else made it mostly because fans love him, and another guy snuck in because every team needs a representative.

That’s kind of the point, though. And this year’s All-Star roster feels especially chaotic, even by normal standards.

The 2026 game is headed to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on July 14, and the roster already feels like it’s been through two or three versions of itself. The Phillies have six guys in, the Dodgers and Braves are right behind them, and the list has already been reshuffled because of injuries and the usual mid-July chaos. So yeah, the snub conversation is loud again. It should be. Some of these omissions are brutal.

But you can only put 26 players on each team.

The Snubs That Still Sting

Zack Wheeler, Phillies

Wheeler’s the one that just hits you right away because it feels almost too obvious. The game’s in Philly. He’s a Phillie. And he’s been really damn good since coming back from all the blood clot stuff. The numbers aren’t even debatable — 8-1, 2.36 ERA, 84 punchouts in 80 innings. His agent calling it “tone deaf” made the rounds quick, and honestly… he's not wrong. This is the exact kind of hometown All-Star story that usually writes itself.

What makes it weird is the Phillies aren’t getting ignored at all. Marsh is in, Harper’s in, Schwarber, Sánchez, Duran, Luzardo — they’ve got six guys on the roster. So this isn’t some “MLB forgot Philly exists” thing. It’s actually more annoying than that. It’s the host city having a full group there… and still somehow having the most obvious snub too.

And that’s the roster math in a nutshell. Wheeler’s got the production. He’s got the story. He’s got the setting. But he also missed some time, doesn’t have the same innings pitched as some other starters, and his schedule might not even line up cleanly for the game anyway. So you land in this weird middle ground where everyone agrees he feels like an All-Star… and he’s still not on the team.

Kyle Harrison, Brewers

Harrison’s omission stands out immediately. They’ve been one of the best teams in baseball, and he’s been a big part of that. The numbers aren’t borderline either — 8-1, 2.82 ERA, 99 punchouts in 79 2/3 innings. That’s not a “hey, nice story” case. That’s a real All-Star case.

The problem is, NL pitching is always a numbers game. There are only so many spots, and you’ve got to balance starters, relievers, team reps, and guys who can actually throw in the game. Then Sunday starts hit and the whole thing gets even weirder. Skenes, Misiorowski, and Meyer all got replaced because their schedules didn’t line up.

And that’s where this gets messy. The best version of the roster on Saturday isn’t the same one you have by Tuesday. Guys get picked and don’t pitch. Guys get left off and end up as replacements anyway. Some guys do everything right and still never get the call. Harrison’s stuck right in the middle of that — clearly good enough, just not in the right spot at the right time.

Sonny Gray, Red Sox

Jun 28, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park.
Credit: Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

Gray’s one of those snubs where you don’t really need to sell it. He was 10-1 with a 2.61 ERA when this whole conversation started. That usually gets you in. It’s not complicated. If a veteran starter is putting up that kind of first half, he should at least be in the mix — and Gray was way past just “in the mix.”

What makes it a little weird is Boston isn’t getting ignored. Chapman’s in. Suárez is in. So this isn’t some Red Sox blackout. It’s more that Gray feels like the guy who got squeezed out by how the staff shook out. He was fourth in ERA among AL starters with at least 80 innings. That’s not fringe — that’s legit.

And that’s kind of the issue. It’s a slam-dunk of an All-Star case. Not the loudest. Not the flashiest. But clean. And those are the ones that get lost when the roster starts trying to juggle everything all at once.

Davis Martin, White Sox

Martin’s worth bringing up because the White Sox turnaround has been one of the better stories in baseball, and one All-Star just feels a little light if you’re looking at the full picture. Vargas getting in is cool, no issue there. But Martin had a real case on the mound too.

He’s right there among the top starters in ERA across the league. And when you start looking at the bigger snub picture, he’s not even the only White Sox name you could bring up.

But he doesn’t have the same kind of pull as a Wheeler or a Gray. And yeah, that matters. It shouldn’t matter as much as it does, but it does. These debates aren’t just about who’s been the best — they’re about who people actually know. If you’ve got the numbers but not the name, you usually need everything else to break perfectly to get in.

That didn’t happen for Martin.

Nick Martinez, Rays

Martinez is the kind of veteran that just quietly gets lost in this stuff. He’s not the shiny new name, not the headline guy, similar to Martin. But the production’s there — he’s got the third-lowest ERA among qualified AL starters, and if a spot opens up, he’s one of the first guys you’d expect to get that call.

Part of the reason you don’t hear as much noise about him is Tampa already has a big group on this roster. Caminero’s starting, Díaz is there, Rasmussen, Baker — they’ve already got four spots taken up. So it doesn’t feel like anything’s missing from the outside. But that’s also where this gets tricky. Team totals can kind of blur the individual case. A guy can do more than enough on his own and still get left out because his team already checked the box.

It’s not some conspiracy or anything like that. It’s just how this whole thing works. Every team needs a rep, and every extra spot one team gets ends up squeezing someone else out.

Willson Contreras, Red Sox

Mar 28, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Boston Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras (40) reacts to teammates after a play against the Cincinnati Reds in the 10th inning at Great American Ball Park.
Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Contreras is kind of the perfect example of how weird this whole thing gets. He already ended up making it — just not the first time around.

At first, he was one of the clearest snubs on the board. Then Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had to pull out with back issues, Nick Kurtz slid into the starting spot, and suddenly Contreras is in as the replacement. That’s how fast this thing flips. One day you’re the biggest omission, the next you’re an All-Star.

And the thing is, his numbers backed it the whole time. Hitting .284 with 20 homers and 59 RBIs isn’t some borderline case. That’s an All-Star first half. So him needing the backdoor path to get there doesn’t really fix anything — it really just proves the point.

So yeah, was he a snub? Definitely.

Is he still a snub now? Not really.

Does that somehow make the whole thing feel even dumber? Yeah… a little bit.

Bryan Reynolds, Pirates

Reynolds is the one where you look at Pittsburgh and go, “That’s really all they got?” Skenes being in is obvious — nobody’s arguing that. But this team’s been more interesting than just one ace, and Reynolds is the easiest position-player case they had.

He’s hitting .284 with a .395 OBP, .470 slugging, 12 homers, 55 RBI, plus a 34-game on-base streak and a 17-game hitting streak. That’s not some “local fans trying to push their guy” stat line.

The problem is, the outfield is always a bloodbath. There are just too many guys with real cases, and once every team gets a rep, the extra spots disappear quick. Soto, Marsh, Pages, Wood, Carroll, Walker — that group was loaded. Somebody was getting pushed out no matter what.

Reynolds just happened to be one of them.

And it still feels a little off. A guy getting on base like that, doing it for a Pirates team that’s actually been competitive, and there’s still no way to get him on the roster? That doesn't feel right.

Massive Pile-Up At Second In The NL

Brice Turang, Brewers

Turang’s case is about how much of Milwaukee’s identity he covers every single night. He’s their table-setter, their cleanest defender up the middle, and one of the few guys on that roster who impacts the game even when he’s not driving the ball.

Watch the Brewers play for a week and you get it. He’s turning borderline plays into outs, stretching singles into something a little more, keeping innings alive, and cleaning up mistakes behind the staff. The stat line backs it up — we’re talking 3.5 WAR, 20 doubles, 12 homers, 13 steals, and elite defense.

And that’s where the miss stings a bit more. This isn’t a “he got hot at the right time” guy. This is a player who’s been part of why Milwaukee actually looks like a real, balanced team. You take him out of that lineup or off that defense, and it changes how they play.

That kind of value doesn’t always translate to an All-Star ballot. It’s not flashy, and it’s easy to overlook if you’re just scanning numbers next to bigger names.

But if you’ve watched him, you don’t really need a complicated argument. He’s one of those guys you notice more the longer you watch — and that usually means he’s doing a lot right.

Brandon Lowe, Pirates

Lowe’s case goes the other direction. There’s nothing subtle about it. When he’s going right, the ball jumps, and it changes innings in a hurry.

He’s been the one real middle-of-the-order threat Pittsburgh can lean on. Not just the 20 homers and 60 RBI — it’s when they come. Big swings to flip games, quick bursts where he carries the offense for a week, stretches where he’s basically the only reason pitchers feel any fear at all when they look at that lineup.

That matters on a team like the Pirates. They’re not rolling out a stacked order where you can hide behind three other stars. If Lowe’s isn't producing, it gets thin fast. If he is, suddenly they look dangerous for a couple innings at a time.

There’s also been a real adjustment element to his year. He’s been more willing to sell out for pull and live with the swing-and-miss if it means the contact he does make actually hurts. That kind of hitter usually finds a way onto this stage, because power plays anywhere.

JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals

Wetherholt’s way more about how fast he forced his way into relevance than anything else. This isn’t some hyped name coasting on reputation — this is a guy who showed up and immediately started producing like he belonged.

And it’s not just the surface numbers. It’s how comfortable he looks doing it. There’s no panic in his at-bats, no “just trying to survive” feel you sometimes get with younger guys. He’s working counts and putting the ball in play really consistently. That kind of polish stands out.

He ended up leading NL second basemen in WAR for a reason. Not because one tool is carrying everything, but because he’s doing a little bit of everything well.

This is the exact kind of player the All-Star Game is supposed to introduce people to. If you don’t watch the Cardinals every night, this was the stage where you’re supposed to find out about him.

Instead, he’s still kind of sitting in that “you’ll get it eventually” tier. And yeah, he probably will. This just felt like the moment that could’ve sped that up.

Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks

May 25, 2026; San Francisco, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte (4) gestures as he scores a run against the San Francisco Giants during the fifth inning at Oracle Park.
Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Marte’s one of the only players on this list who already has the big name, which somehow makes it easier to overlook a really good season.  He’s still doing the same thing he always does — hitting for power, controlling at-bats, being one of the few guys in that lineup you actually have to gameplan around. Seventeen homers isn’t nothing, especially at second base, and it’s not like the rest of his game dropped off.

But there’s no surprise factor with him anymore. No breakout buzz, no “where did this come from?” moment. It’s just Marte being good again. And weirdly, that can work against you in something like this.

Arizona’s also in that spot where they’re competitive, but they’re not dominating headlines every night. So his season kind of stays in the background unless you’re really paying attention.

That doesn’t make it less valuable. It just makes it easier to miss.

Big Names, Quiet First Halves

Not every big name missing is hurt, and not all of them got snubbed either. Some guys just didn’t have the first half we’re used to seeing, and that’s part of why this roster feels a little off.

The name only carries you so far.

Mookie Betts

A couple years ago, leaving Mookie off this roster would’ve sounded ridiculous. This year, it’s not that complicated.

He just hasn’t been Mookie. Missed most of April with the oblique, came back, and the production never really clicked the way you expect. .203/.266/.367 through 40 games isn’t what people picture when they think All-Star.

And yeah, there’s some context there. The underlying numbers say he’s probably been a little unlucky, and he still brings value in the field. But this is Mookie Betts. We’re not grading him on “is he helping?” We’re grading him on “is he clearly one of the best in the league right now?”

This year, he just hasn’t been.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Oct 8, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) celebrates with third baseman Manny Machado (13) after hitting a home run in the second inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game three of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park.
Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Tatis has had one of those first halves where you keep waiting for it to look normal again, and it just… doesn’t for a while. He eventually started to heat up, but that early power drought was impossible to ignore. No way around it. He went an astonishing 207 at-bats before hitting his first homer, and that 55-game stretch without one was the second-longest ever for a guy who’s already had a 40-homer season.

You can live with some strikeouts, you can live with some streakiness, but when the ball’s not jumping off his bat, it changes how the whole lineup flows around him.

He did start to find it again later, and you can see the version of Tatis people expect starting to come back. But the All-Star Game isn’t about who you are over a full season — it’s about what you did in the first half.

Trea Turner

Turner’s case comes down to the numbers not matching the name. He’s sitting at .242 with 10 homers, 31 RBI and a .654 OPS, which just isn't going to cut it as a shortstop.

And that’s why Turner ends up on the outside. The reputation, the speed, the highlight plays — all still there. But the production wasn’t, and on a Phillies team that already sent a long list of players to the game, there just wasn’t room for a shortstop with a .654 OPS.

That’s the difference with him. In his best years, you feel Turner for a stretch — he’s on three times a night, taking extra bags, flipping innings by himself. This year it’s been more… fine. Good at-bats, then a quiet series, then a little burst, then back to neutral.

At shortstop, “fine” gets you lost. There were guys who were really good from start to finish, and Turner never really got there.

Julio RodrĂ­guez

Julio’s season is weird because the numbers don’t really explain why he’s out. If you line up his first halves the last three years, they’re all incredibly similar. He missed in 2024, made it in 2025, and now he’s out again.

2025 is the outlier, and it wasn’t really about the bat. He got in on the player vote, and a big part of that was his defense — he was second in the AL in WAR, mostly because he was tied for the lead in defensive runs saved by AL center fielders. If you take that piece out of it, you’re probably looking at three straight years where the offensive alone doesn’t quite push him over the line.

That’s what makes this one tricky. The production hasn’t really changed much. The way it’s been evaluated has.

The first half never had that stretch where he just takes over. You’d hard contact for a week, then the swing gets a little jumpy and the chase creeps back in. The K- and chase-rates were both a touch higher than you want, and the power came and went.

That matters more with him than most guys. Julio’s not supposed to be “steady good.” He’s supposed to feel overwhelming for a month at a time. That’s what usually pushes him into this game.

And if you want a quick gut check, just look at Seattle’s rep. It’s Randy Arozarena, not Julio. Last year, Arozarena was the replacement for Julio when he decided to skip the game to recover.

The reality is he’ll probably have that run at some point — he always does. It just didn’t happen early enough this year.

All stats courtesy of MLB.com.


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