The NFL offseason is full of hot takes, fake hype videos, and fans convincing themselves this is finally their year. But nothing gets people going quite like Over/Under win totals. It’s simple: Vegas drops a number, and we all get to argue whether our favorite team is hitting the Over or heading for .500.

Some of these are going to sting, some are going to fire up fanbases, and a few might age terribly by Week 3. But that’s the fun of it, right? If you love football, you’ve got an opinion on these numbers. Here are mine.

NFC Division Breakdowns & Predictions

NFC North: A Bunched-Up Race with Emerging Contenders

Detroit Lions (O/U 10.5)

Pick: Over

The Lions have stacked up 27 wins over the last two seasons — that’s actually the most in the league, even more than the Chiefs. This team is built tough in the trenches and it shows every Sunday. Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes aren’t out here chasing headlines, they’re adding dudes who punch you in the mouth and wear you down.

As long as the defense doesn’t get shredded by injuries again, they’re sitting at 11 or 12 wins easy. Losing both coordinators and a Pro Bowl center hurts, but the core is rock solid. With Jared Goff steering a loaded offense and Aidan Hutchinson wrecking games on the other side, I can’t see them slipping back under. This is an over all day.

Minnesota Vikings (O/U 9.5)

Pick: Under

Last year the Vikings lived on the edge — 9-1 in one-score games, and that’s just not something you can bank on two years in a row. That kind of luck made a 14-win team look a lot more dominant than they really were.

Kevin O’Connell deserves credit for the job he’s done, and yeah, he even managed to squeeze some life out of Sam Darnold. Now it’s J.J. McCarthy’s show, and the kid’s got weapons around him. But I’m not betting on lightning striking twice with all those late-game bounces and a defense that thrived on turnovers. This feels like an 8- or 9-win team — good enough to hang around, but not enough to justify the over.

Green Bay Packers (O/U 9.5)

Pick: Under

I’m not sold on Green Bay hitting double digits. Last year they went 2-6 against playoff teams, and that kind of stat tells you who they really were once the competition ramped up. The front office doubled down on adding more receivers this offseason instead of fixing the defensive front or pass rush, and that feels like a miss. Sure, Jordan Love showed flashes, but this is another roster that leaned heavily on turnover luck in 2024 — those bounces don’t keep falling your way every year.

And outside of Love, what really scares defenses here? They’re putting a lot on Golden and then leaning on weapons who haven’t proven anything at this level yet. Relying on a wideout who’s never played a real snap is a dangerous way to live in this league. In a division where every team can bloody each other up, I see the Packers slipping back into that 7–8 win range instead of pushing 10.

Chicago Bears (O/U 7.5)

Pick: Over

Last year everything that could go wrong, did go wrong for Chicago, and they still weren’t a total disaster. Now they’ve stacked upgrades everywhere — new coach, new play caller, better lines on both sides, and they even added a couple tight ends to give Caleb Williams some extra help. Speaking of Caleb, he just had the best season a Bears QB has put together in a decade, and he’s only scratching the surface.

The schedule isn’t brutal either. The NFC North looks tough at the very top with Detroit, but there’s a drop after that. Getting to eight or nine wins isn’t some crazy leap, it’s a realistic step forward if they manage to stay healthy and get even decent play out of the young guys. It’s not an insane number, and honestly, they could hit this over and still miss the playoffs. But that would still be progress, and for a franchise that’s been stuck in neutral forever, that matters.

NFC East: Eagles at the Top, Will a Challenger Show Itself?

Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 11.5)

Pick: Over

Philly has been flat-out rolling under Nick Sirianni, and nothing about this roster screams collapse. They’ve cleared their win total in three of his four years, and it’s not by accident. The offensive line is still nasty, Jalen Hurts has a full arsenal, and oh yeah, they added Saquon Barkley to an already loaded backfield. That’s just unfair.

Sure, the schedule’s a grind and they’ve got some turnover on defense with vets like Milton Williams gone, plus another coordinator change. But this is one of the few teams built to handle that churn. They draft and develop at a high level, they’ve got youth stepping into bigger roles, and the trenches on both sides keep them in every game. At the end of the day, this is the best team in football until someone proves otherwise. Double-digit wins feel automatic, and 12 isn’t out of the question. Over all the way.

Note: Fanduel has the O/U 10.5 priced very similar to 11.5. So if you're on the fence, that's there (for now) if you're willing to lay a little more juice.

Washington Commanders (O/U 9.5)

Pick: Over

This all hinges on Terry McLaurin’s deal getting done — if that drags out, it changes the whole vibe. But if he’s locked in, this team still has juice. Sure, last year felt a little magical with the crazy 87% fourth-down conversion rate and that NFC title game run, but Jayden Daniels is the kind of quarterback who makes you believe it wasn’t all smoke. He’s special, and now the front office actually gave him some help up front plus a legit second weapon in Deebo Samuel.

Even if regression hits, the foundation is strong enough for 10 wins, maybe 11. If McLaurin and Deebo are both rolling, you’re talking about a wideout duo that can win matchups every single week. That keeps the pressure off Daniels and lets the defense play from ahead more often. It might not be another “shock the league” 12-win season, but I still see double digits here, and that’s enough to hit the Over.

Dallas Cowboys (O/U 7.5)

Pick: Under

The Cowboys are one of those teams where the name still carries more weight than the roster. Dak put up numbers last year, sure, but they went 3-5 in games that he started, and half of those wins didn’t exactly scream contender. The offensive line that used to be the backbone of this team is now a big question mark, and they did next to nothing in the offseason to fix it. No splash moves, no real plan to fix the run game, and they hand the keys to first-time head coach Brian Schottenheimer. That doesn’t scream “bounce-back year.”

The defense? Still soft against the run, which killed them when it mattered most, and it’s not like they brought in reinforcements to fix it. Yeah, Micah Parsons is still a freak, but until he gets his deal signed, that cloud is hanging over the locker room too. This feels like another Cowboys season where the hype outweighs the results. I don’t see nine wins here. 

New York Giants (O/U 5.5)

Pick: Under

The Giants are staring at one of the toughest schedules in the league, and that’s not exactly the recipe for a rebound. The defense is legit, though — top 10 in sacks last year and now they add Abdul Carter to make that front seven even nastier. Malik Nabers is a stud and will make his plays, but this offense still feels like it’s being held together with duct tape.

Russell Wilson starting out feels like a short-term Band-Aid, and when things inevitably sputter, Daboll’s going to feel the heat and throw Dart out there. Long-term, that’s the right call, but asking a rookie to step in midseason and light it up against NFL starters is a tall order. He’s got talent, but it’s more about 2026 and beyond. This year? With the schedule and all the moving pieces, I don’t see them getting to six wins.

NFC South: Organizational Strengths and Rising Talents

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 9.5)

Pick: Over

Tampa doesn’t get the respect they deserve, but all they’ve done the last six years is prove people wrong. They’ve gone over their win total in five of those seasons, and it’s not by accident. Baker Mayfield has quietly been a top-10 guy in touchdowns and yards the last two years, and now he’s back with every single offensive starter from last season. That means another year of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans doing their thing, with real continuity everywhere else.

The division isn’t scary either. Atlanta’s still figuring things out, New Orleans is basically starting over, and Carolina’s a work in progress. That gives Tampa plenty of room to rack up wins. People can doubt them all they want, but this is one of the easier Overs on the board for me. 

Atlanta Falcons (O/U 8.5)

Pick: Under

I liked Atlanta a little more when this number was 7.5, but once it climbed to 8.5 it felt too rich. Michael Penix Jr. is going to be fun — big arm, accurate, carries himself like a pro already. And with weapons around him, he’s going to pop at times. But he’s also in his second year behind a line that isn’t bulletproof, and he’s not the most mobile or durable guy if things break down up front. That makes it risky to bank on him carrying them to nine wins out of the gate.

They did throw resources at the defense, basically using two first-rounders to get young pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. That should help, but this has been the worst pass rush in the league for half a decade — it’s not flipping overnight. And as bad as Kirk Cousins was at times last year, he still had a few vintage Sundays that flat-out won them games. I believe in this team more long-term than I did with Cousins, but this season? I’m not there yet. Under. 

Carolina Panthers (O/U 6.5)

Pick: Over

The Panthers were a mess for most of last year, but Bryce Young quietly finished strong — seven touchdowns and zero picks in his last three games. That’s the kind of glimpse you want to see from a young QB heading into Year 3. Add in the fact that their schedule isn’t brutal, and suddenly things don’t look so hopeless.

Defensively, they were dead last against the run, and it flat-out killed them. But the front office actually attacked that weakness this offseason. Even if they climb from awful to just average, that alone can swing a couple games. You start stacking that with Bryce taking a step, a few more playmakers — like rookie Tetairoa McMillan — clicking, and it’s not hard to see them hitting seven wins. I’m not calling them a playoff team, but I do think this is the year Young shows he’s the guy and the Panthers take a real step forward. Over. 

New Orleans Saints (O/U 4.5)

Pick: Under

The Saints feel like a team that’s already looking ahead to the draft. Last year they were 0-7 without Derek Carr, and now he’s gone. Kellen Moore comes in as the new coach with rookie Tyler Shough under center, but it’s hard to see that clicking right away — or ever. The defense still has some veterans, but they’re not getting younger, and consistent pressure up front just hasn’t been there.

When you put it all together, this roster doesn’t scream “contender,” it screams “reset.” And honestly, it wouldn’t shock me if the people in charge want it that way. They need a top pick and a fresh start, and the fastest way to get there is stacking losses. Even with the number so low, I have to lean to the Under here.

NFC West: Divisional Dominance and Injury Concerns

Los Angeles Rams (O/U 9.5)

Pick: Over

I can’t quit the Rams. Sean McVay has been at this eight years and six of those ended with double-digit wins. That’s no fluke. The guy just finds ways to get it done. Sure, the offensive line health is always a little scary, but when you’ve got Matthew Stafford slinging it to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, you’re going to move the ball. Add in McVay’s play-calling wizardry and a defensive front that now features Braden Fisk and Jared Verse bringing the juice, and this team looks built to hang with anybody.

Stafford being back at practice is a huge deal, because if he’s upright, this is an easy Over. If he goes down, it all falls apart quick. But with him in the lineup and that track record under McVay, I’m betting they find their way to 10 or more wins again.

San Francisco 49ers (O/U 10.5)

Pick: Over

The Niners are built different. Kyle Shanahan is as good as it gets when it comes to scheming an offense, and Brock Purdy has proven he’s the perfect trigger man for what they want to do. People can knock him all they want, but he walked off the field in the Super Bowl with a lead on Mahomes. That wasn’t a fluke — he’s steady, efficient, and he knows how to run this system.

The real swing piece is Christian McCaffrey. When he’s healthy, he completely changes the math — worth several points a game by himself. If he’s in the lineup, everything clicks: play action, spacing, rhythm. Reports say he’s 100% ready, which is massive. Add in the defense reloading with Bryce Huff screaming off the edge, and you’ve got a group that can still bully people even after some turnover.

It’s never easy to get to 11 wins, but this roster is stacked, the scheme is proven, and the NFC isn’t exactly loaded with juggernauts. I’m betting Over. 

Seattle Seahawks (O/U 7.5)

Pick: Under

Seattle feels like a trap this year. The offensive line is shaky, and if you’ve watched Sam Darnold in meaningful games, you know the bad versions show up more often than not. He left a rough impression down the stretch last season, and now he’s stepping into a situation without Kevin O’Connell drawing things up or Justin Jefferson bailing him out. To make matters worse, there’s no DK Metcalf here anymore to lean on.

That’s a recipe for a rude awakening. Sure, the defense can scrap, but at some point you need your QB to win games for you. I don’t see it. This feels more like a five-or-six-win team than one sniffing eight. I’m on the Under.

Arizona Cardinals (O/U 8.5)

Pick: Under

This one’s tough, because the Cards are going to be fun with Kyler, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Trey McBride. But here’s the reality: Kyler has only cleared eight wins once in his career, and that came after that scorching hot 7-0 start. The offensive line took some hits this offseason and isn’t a sure thing to hold up, and the NFC West is loaded at the top. That’s not the kind of setup where you can just bank on everything going right.

I like the young weapons and some of the defensive pieces they’ve added, but counting on health and immediate chemistry feels like a stretch. If it all clicks, sure, they could sneak over. But history tells me to lean under here. 

AFC Division Breakdowns & Predictions

AFC North: A Challenging Gauntlet

Baltimore Ravens (O/U 11.5)

Pick: Under

The Ravens were a machine last year — Lamar only threw four picks, Derrick Henry stayed healthy, and the whole thing looked unstoppable. But asking for that exact same magic again feels like a reach. Their first six weeks has five games against playoff teams, and that’s a gauntlet that will test them right away. On top of that, they had insanely good injury luck in 2024, and that stuff doesn’t usually carry over. Even the best-run teams hit speed bumps, and it just feels unrealistic to think they’re going to breeze through another regular season without a few hiccups this time around.

That doesn’t mean Baltimore isn’t legit — they absolutely are. This is still a roster stacked with star power, a quarterback playing at an MVP level, and a coach who knows how to win big games. They’re going to be right in the mix come January, and nobody is going to want to see them in the playoffs. But with both the Steelers and Bengals reloading, it’s hard to see them cruising past 11 wins again. This feels more like a 10- or 11-win team — still a dangerous contender that can make a run, but not one that cashes the Over during the regular season.

Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 9.5)

Pick: Over

The Bengals were way better than their record showed last year. They averaged 27.8 points a game — that’s usually enough to put you in the 12-win conversation — but the defense was such a mess they only managed nine. Joe Burrow and that offense don’t need to change anything, they just need the other side of the ball to stop bleeding points.

And Cincinnati knows it. Three of their first four draft picks went to defense, plus they brought in a new coordinator to fix things. If that unit can just be competent — not elite, just average — the Bengals are back in the double-digit win mix. With Burrow, Chase, Higgins, and a line that’s good enough to keep him upright, I’m banking on the offense staying hot and the defense doing just enough to push them over.

Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 8.5)

Pick: Over

The Steelers don’t need to light up the scoreboard to clear this number — they just need to be decent on offense. Over the last five years, they’re 37-6 when they score at least 20 points. That’s wild. With Aaron Rodgers now in town, plus DK Metcalf, Jonnu Smith, and Jaylen Warren rounding out the weapons, they don’t even need to be the most explosive — just steady enough to get to 21 a game. If they can do that, you know Mike Tomlin is going to drag them to nine wins like he always does. The man hasn’t had a losing season yet, and I’m not betting against that streak.

That said, Rodgers is old, and if things start ugly, I could see it snowballing quick. This isn’t one of my slam-dunk picks, more like a quiet lean to the Over. The formula is simple, though: keep Rodgers upright, let Metcalf stretch the field, and let Tomlin and this defense work their magic. If those boxes get checked, Pittsburgh’s in business.

Cleveland Browns (O/U 4.5)

Pick: Under

This feels like another long season coming for Cleveland. Their opening stretch is brutal — Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings, Steelers — and it’s not crazy to think they could start 0-6 or close to it. That kind of hole is tough to climb out of no matter who you are. The roster’s got holes all over, and the quarterback room is more of a revolving door than a real solution. Banking on a career resurgence from Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett is wishful thinking at best.

And after spending two draft picks on quarterbacks, you know the temptation will be there to throw one of the young guys in once things get ugly. But plugging a rookie into this situation isn’t fixing anything. It’s just tossing them into the fire without enough around them to succeed. All in all, this is a team headed for another rough ride, and I don’t see them getting to five wins. 

AFC East: Bills' Continued Dominance

Buffalo Bills (O/U 12.5)

Pick: Over

Nobody’s caught up to Buffalo in this division. They’ve been the class of the AFC East for years now, and they’re still the heaviest favorite in the entire league to win their division. Josh Allen is the engine — coming off an MVP, he's shown he can put the team on his back and do it over and over again. Behind him, the offensive line is solid, the defense got some key reinforcements, and they’ve got a group of young wideouts who should only get better with more reps.

The crazy part is, for all the ups and downs, they’ve had the best point differential in the regular season over the last five years. That tells you they don’t just win games, they control them. As long as Allen stays upright, this is a team that can grab the one seed and make another deep run. Hiccups will happen — no team sails through completely clean — but Buffalo is still built to stack double-digit wins, and I’m confident in them clearing this number.

New England Patriots (O/U 8.5)

Pick: Under

Mike Vrabel brings toughness back to New England and there’s finally some juice again with Drake Maye under center, but let’s be real — this roster still isn’t there yet. They’ve only gone over eight wins once since Brady left, and nothing about this group screams that they’re suddenly ready to push for 9-10 wins. Vrabel raises the floor, and Maye is going to flash, but they don’t have the weapons for him to fully show out yet.

The defense will keep them in games, and there’s a clear direction for once, which is huge. But offensively, they’re still light — especially when it comes to proven guys who can help a rookie QB finish drives in the red zone. This feels like a “one year away” team: scrappy enough to be competitive, fun enough to see progress, but not built to consistently close games yet. The future looks a lot brighter than it has in years, but for 2025, I’m staying under.

New York Jets (O/U 5.5)

Pick: Under

The Jets are a mess right now. Justin Fields might be exciting with his legs, but he’s still an inconsistent passer, and this is not the kind of setup that helps a quarterback settle in. The offensive line is a little better than it was, but there are still way too many holes across this roster to feel confident. Losing Robert Saleh wrecked the defense too — what used to be a strength turned into a liability almost overnight.

Put it all together and it’s hard to see where the wins come from. Even if Fields flashes and the line holds up, this just isn’t a group built to consistently close out games. I think they’ll have some moments that make fans hopeful, but over the course of 17 games, I don’t see them getting to six wins.

Miami Dolphins (O/U 7.5)

Pick: Under

The Dolphins are already limping into the season, and that’s not a great sign. Injuries are stacking up before Week 1, and fans are already saying out loud what it feels like the rest of the league knows — teams have figured this offense out. It’s not that Tyreek and Waddle suddenly aren’t dangerous, but when the timing and spacing isn’t perfect, Miami doesn’t have many answers. And if Tua’s not 100% healthy — which is almost always the case — the consistency just isn’t there.

On top of that, the aggressive trades from the past couple years haven’t really paid off, and the cap space is tight enough that help isn’t walking through the door. Sure, if everyone magically stays healthy, they’ve got enough juice to make me look foolish and blow past this number. But in reality, it feels more like a team that’s stuck in neutral and more likely to disappoint than suddenly flip a switch.

AFC South: A Mix of Promises and Questions

Houston Texans (O/U 9.5)

Pick: Under

Houston feels like the team everyone is ready to crown, but I’ve got some hesitation. They beat up on their own division last year, going 5-1 in the AFC South, but outside of that bubble they were just 5-6 — including 1-5 against playoff teams. That tells you they’re not quite ready for the big-boy table yet.

Trading away Laremy Tunsil didn’t help either. C.J. Stroud spent too much of last season on his back, and now you’re asking him to carry even more behind a line with question marks. The young receivers are fun, and Stroud is the type of quarterback who can make me eat these words, but relying on him to play superhero every Sunday is a dangerous way to live. I like the direction they’re going, but for 2025, I think they land under 9.5 wins.

Indianapolis Colts (O/U 7.5)

Pick: Over

The Colts just find ways to stay competitive, no matter how messy things get under center. They’ve had eight different quarterbacks in the last five years and still managed to win eight or more games in four of them. That says a lot about Shane Steichen and the organization as a whole — they keep the floor higher than you’d think.

Now it’s on Anthony Richardson to settle in. He doesn’t need to turn into MVP Cam Newton overnight, he just needs to play smarter than last year and stay on the field. Daniel Jones is there as insurance, but if Richardson can stay healthy and cut out the reckless stuff, this roster is good enough to hit eight wins again. The line is steady, Jonathan Taylor is still a dude, and the defense plays hard. It’s not a flashy pick, but Indy feels like a team that quietly clears this number. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 7.5)

Pick: Under

The Jags have been one of those teams that always seem to get hype in the summer but don’t back it up when the season actually hits. Trevor Lawrence has gone under their win total in three of his four years, and at this point it’s a “gotta see it before I believe it” situation. New coach Liam Coen might eventually turn things around, but right now it’s hard to bank on instant results.

I really like Travis Hunter and think he can be a difference-maker on both sides of the ball, but that only matters if they actually let him do it. If they give him that opportunity, maybe they can surprise in a weaker division. But history says otherwise. Until this group proves they can consistently stack wins, I’m leaning under.

Tennessee Titans (O/U 6.5)

Pick: Over

The Titans’ offense was flat-out painful to watch last year — 182 passing yards a game over the last three seasons. That’s historically bad, but you can only go up from there. Enter Cam Ward. If the rookie can give them even average QB play — say 225 yards a game instead of that brutal 182 — that alone is a massive upgrade. Pair that with a defense that has quietly stayed tough and disciplined, and suddenly you’re looking at a team that can grind out wins again.

The number jumped up from 5.5 to 6.5 after preseason, but I still like the Over. This isn’t about Ward needing to come in and be a star right away — it’s about him being competent enough to let the playmakers and that defense do their jobs. With just a little stability on offense, seven wins feels totally within reach.

AFC West: The Chiefs' Reign and Division Challengers

Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 11.5)

Pick: Over

Sure, the Chiefs have questions — Kelce isn’t getting younger, the O-line got bullied in the Super Bowl, and their first nine games are a gauntlet with Baltimore, Detroit, Washington, and Buffalo all waiting. That’s the kind of schedule that could make anybody stumble. Toss in the fact that they’re coming off a Super Bowl loss, and people are right to wonder if a little hangover is coming.

But let’s be real — betting on a Mahomes and Andy Reid team to suddenly slide just feels like trying too hard. Even if they’re not the 15-2 version we saw, to miss this Over they’d have to lose four more games than last year. That’s a massive drop-off I just don’t see happening. Josh Simmons looks like a legit answer at tackle, Rashee Rice will be available for at least the first month, and as long as 15 is upright, the Chiefs are a 12-win team. Over.

Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 9.5)

Pick: Over

This is the year the Chargers finally feel different — and it starts with Jim Harbaugh. The guy just wins everywhere he goes, and he’s already flipped the culture in L.A. I know people love to talk about Justin Herbert being the reason, but honestly, I trust Harbaugh’s impact more than I do the idea of Herbert suddenly turning into Peyton Manning.

The defense was already number one in scoring last season, and they add a first-round back in Omarion Hampton to take pressure off Herbert, plus a second-round burner in Tre Harris to stretch the field with Ladd McConkey. That’s a real injection of balance and explosiveness. Harbaugh’s teams play tough, run the rock, and punch you in the mouth — and now he’s got a roster that can actually back that up. For once, the Chargers don’t feel like fool’s gold. I see 10 wins here.

Denver Broncos (O/U 9.5)

Pick: Under

I think the Broncos take a little step back this year. The offense already showed some life last season, but expecting them to keep climbing with Bo Nix feels like a reach. Nix had over 60 college starts under his belt before coming into the league, which means what you saw is probably what you’re going to get.

Defensively they’ll be tough, but there are already injury concerns with big additions like Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw. In a division this stacked, somebody has to land under, and Denver feels like the one most likely to plateau. Solid team, not a disaster, but I see more of an 8-9 win group than back-to-back double-digit winners.

Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 6.5)

Pick: Over

The Raiders quietly made some of the biggest upgrades of the entire offseason. Pete Carroll comes in to run the show, and no matter what you think about him, the guy knows how to build a physical, competitive football team. Add in Geno Smith, who’s coming off a couple strong years in Seattle, and suddenly this team has a steady hand at quarterback instead of living in chaos.

What really makes them intriguing is the youth movement around those vets. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty brings juice to the backfield, and Brock Bowers is the kind of tight end who can change games right away. Those two alone make the offense a whole lot harder to defend. I’m not saying the Raiders are suddenly a playoff lock, but they’re the type of team that can ruin someone else’s season in December. They’ll be fun, scrappy, and better than people expect. That’s enough for me to lean Over.